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Two simultaneous visits in the last two days to two countries that are on opposite sides, opened the door to a wide conversation about the new stage, with which Tripoli, located in the west of Libya, is entering, and which seems to be on the brink. of revolutionary developments, which will lead to a new Libyan scenario, far from the sounds of bombings and convoys. Heavily armed soldiers.
The first visit is by Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, accompanied by a high-ranking military delegation among the land and sea chiefs of staff, before a high-ranking Egyptian delegation made up of diplomatic and security personalities visited the capital for the first time in six years, in plays that observers dismissed as mere coincidence. Behind them are messages and fixes that may not be shown publicly at this time, but their signs are now exposed.
Most of the analyzes currently lead to the fact that the Libyan scenario is currently witnessing a closer understanding than a rapprochement between Turkey and Egypt, something that the two parties have paved in recent months, without clarity of objectives and intentions, but on the other hand There are several complications and sticking points related to the nature of the counter-alliances that line up. It includes Ankara and Cairo, which would impede any positive move that the two sides might take.
Positive messages from Ankara
About two months ago, there was a positive tone from Ankara towards its Cairo counterpart, especially on matters related to the Libyan arena. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had released several messages, in which he considered that his country was willing to conclude a maritime agreement with Egypt similar to the maritime agreement with Libya.
Last August, he added, “our intelligence apparatus continues its meetings with its intelligence service (Egypt), and there is no doubt that the vision of the Turkish people about the Egyptian people is different and the solidarity between them cannot be the same. with the Greek people. “
In addition to Erdogan’s messages, there were positive statements from Turkish officials emphasizing that there will be communication between the two parties regardless of the political differences between President Erdogan and Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, on the basis that “the two governments and the two peoples must converge. ”
Returning to Haftar’s recent threat against Turkish forces, Cairo did not issue any position similar to its previous positions, in which it considered Sirte-Al-Youfra a “red line”, last June, when the forces of Al-Wefaq, with Turkish support, approached them.
According to observers, Egypt, despite its alignment in the anti-Turkey alliance in various archives, including the Libyan archive, is considered the strongest opponent to the military campaign launched by Haftar to control Tripoli, and had feared the expansion scenario. Turkish in Libya, if Haftar failed at It, that just happened.
It seems that the remarkable Egyptian visit to the Libyan west will not stop that, especially as it was followed by a phone call between Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Libyan Foreign Minister for the Government of National Accord, Muhammad al -Taher Siyala, to discuss the Libyan dossier and support stability.
A statement issued by the Libyan Foreign Ministry spokesman in Al-Wefaq, Muhammad Al-Qiblawi, said today that “Sameh Shoukry praised the reception of the Egyptian delegation in the capital Tripoli, and affirmed the continued cooperation between both parties, and that the visit will be a serious step in this direction. “
Multi-level messages
A political analyst specializing in Turkish affairs, Mahmoud Alloush, believes that the timing of the Turkish and Egyptian visits to Tripoli carries important messages on several levels, the most important of which is that the overall goal of both countries in Libya is similar, that it is to preserve the unity of Libya and the centralization of power in it.
Speaking to Al-Hurra, Alloush said: “The Egyptian openness to the Sarraj government was imposed by the Turkish intervention, and Turkey’s lack of objection to the opening of its Libyan allies to Cairo and the cessation of military operations in Sirte’s borders confirm that the Turks respect the interests of the Egyptians and their willingness to cooperate with them. “
Libya is one of the scenarios of Turkish-Egyptian competition, which had taken a form of confrontation instead of being competitive cooperation, given that the interests of the two countries converge in many aspects, to which is added the achievement of stability in this country.
But Cairo and Ankara, continues the political analyst, “are now more aware than ever of the importance of cooperation in Libya and isolate it from the impact of their differences on other issues, such as the position on political Islam and the Mediterranean conflict. Oriental”.
Feel the pulse to contain the “harmony”
The Egyptian visit received a great deal of attention in government reconciliation circles, especially government figures willing to balance relations with regional parties, and furthermore, there was an implicit welcome in Turkish circles.
But there are those who see the difference from the above, arguing that the Egyptian visit to Tripoli is framed within the framework of a competition far from any understanding or rapprochement with the Turkish side, since Cairo seeks to reinforce a large presence in the Libyan west, as a step to break the Turkish presence that has recently been strengthened with the visit to Akar.
Speaking to Al-Hurra, Libyan political analyst Abdul Salam Al-Rajhi ruled out that there was a link between the Turkish and Egyptian visits to Tripoli.
Al-Rajhi said: “The visit of Akar and his accompanying delegation to Tripoli was not after Haftar’s statements or as a reaction, but was organized after an invitation from the Libyan Defense Minister in the Government of National Accord, with in order to assist the 50th Libyan college guards group that was targeted by Emirati aviation. “
The political analyst adds that “the visit came to participate in the celebration, and coincided with the visit of the Egyptian intelligence. But there is no link between them.”
According to Al-Rajhi, the objective of the Egyptians towards the west of Libya is “to take the pulse, reactivate the consulate, and reactivate the opening of maritime and air lines to navigation for the two countries”, considering that “the Egyptian visit is a kind of pretext. ” Egypt wants to take the pulse, and not lose all the parties in Libya and try to contain the reconciliation government.
Polarization beyond Libyan geography
The events you are witnessing in the Libyan arena are considered a precedent that the region has not seen in years, but it raises several questions about when it will come, that is, what are the hurdles and obstacles that prevented the Egyptian opening in the ancient Libyan west?
The analyst, Mahmoud Alloush, says that the most prominent obstacles are the participation of the two countries (Egypt and western Libya) in “a strong regional polarization that goes beyond Libyan geography.”
He adds that “Egypt is now beginning to think in a relatively different way, and has marked a distance between its interests in Libya within an alliance that unites it with the Emirates, France and other parties, and between its individual interests that force it to open lines with other parties outside this alliance. “
Furthermore, “the outright bet on General Haftar has collapsed, plus Turkey has become a prominent player in the Libyan equation, and some Europeans such as Italy and Germany know this as well,” according to Alloush.
The Istanbul-based political analyst notes that any Turkish-Egyptian cooperation in Libya will help push the way for a political solution to the conflict, believing that “things will move in this direction, but slowly, as some major obstacles remain facing the conflict. achievement of cooperation, the most important of which is the issue of military presence. ” Turkish future “.
At present, Turkey aspires to reverse its intervention and make it a strategic presence in the southern Mediterranean through the establishment of a military base and economic and other investments. As for Egypt, it does not want this Turkish role to be expanded, because it will be at its expense in an economically promising region and a gateway to the other countries of the continent.
