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“It will not advance and it will not delay” the trip of Prime Minister Saad Hariri in the process of government formation, since it is suspended, not for internal but external reasons. All the information that is being circulated, which suggests that the knot is in the quota dispute between him and President Michel Aoun and his political team, aims only to obscure the true cause.
If Hariri really insists on a government of technocrats, it will be like running after a mirage, because the “Shiite duo” places a decisive “veto” on any government that does not appoint all the ministers of the sect. And when this standard is applied to the Shiites, others will have their excuses to do the same and help in the forefront.
In this case, Hariri will have two options:
1- Submit to an open or hidden political formation such as the Hassan Diab government, and this definitely means that it reflects the parliamentary majority allied to Hezbollah.
2- Relying on the logic of “In me and my enemies, oh Lord”. Namely, Hariri goes to the Baabda Palace and hands Aoun a squad that he knows in advance will refuse to sign him, then he apologizes for Mustafa Adib’s style and leaves the game to a new player.
There are those around Hariri who are asking him to adopt the second option, so that he is not responsible for the extremely exhausted situation that will come in the coming weeks and months, and he himself is studying this option. But there are also those who ask him to be patient and buy more time, because wasting the assignment opportunity would be a political loss for him.
President Emmanuel Macron supports the “patience” option. Perhaps the arrival of President Joe Biden to the White House will produce data that will allow the success of his initiative, with the French convinced that reaching an agreement, in the most optimistic possibilities, will take a long time from 2021, because the American “Charge” – The Iranian, who has reached his hottest point today, with Trump, will not quickly end Biden.
Hariri will therefore remain hostage to a vicious circle: the Americans insist on rejecting the participation of “Hezbollah” in any new government. And Iran is responding by procrastinating and buying time, because it does not want the new government to present a “gift” to the French mediator for nothing, and it does not want to present it to the late Trump administration.
Therefore, the conflict will reach its climax in Lebanon, and it will result in a heat little known about the Lebanese situation, and an unprecedented increase in the level of concern for the country, financial, economic and social, but also in safety.
Hezbollah is getting into the climate of escalation, at any moment. Therefore, the timing of the call from its secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, was notable for “dealing with caution, precision and attention, lest any of the Axis sites be drawn into confrontation, at the time of the enemies”.
The British “Guardian” had attributed to the officials of the “party”, a week ago, his talk about the possibility that the Israelis “will carry out a great work in Beirut during the next weeks, despite the state of security alert in the suburb and the south. ” Nasrallah therefore wished to recall that the “party’s” missile force had doubled.
On the other hand, climates suggest that Washington is also bracing for the max. Those familiar with the situation in Washington are discussing various scenarios to raise the level of pressure, with the aim of weakening the “party” and removing its influence from power.
It is rumored that the next phase of the US blockade of Lebanon will be somewhat different, and will result in the imposition of collective sanctions on the entire political system, in one go, not in installments, which would lead to placing all its pillars in a position of siege.
This system had many opportunities to reform and neutralize Lebanon, but it remained stagnant and maneuvering indefinitely. The silent pressure method did not help. Some experts compare what is being prepared as a “nuclear bomb” against the political system. Those who hold this view believe that such a strict measure will practically isolate the system and its downfall.
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