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The Russian agency “Novosti” published, on Monday, a list of the most anticipated events of the next year, ranging from the “vaccine race” against the emerging corona virus to the constitutional reform in Belarus.
The Russian agency “Novosti” published, on Monday, a list of the most anticipated events of the next year, ranging from the “vaccine race” against the emerging corona virus to the constitutional reform in Belarus.
The vaccine race
The Corona pandemic has pushed many countries into a royal race to develop vaccines against the deadly virus, and next year the world is expected to meet the countries and companies that are winning the “race” or “war” on vaccines, according to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. As Zakharova pointed out, Russian vaccines, including “Sputnik V”, the world’s first Corona vaccine to be officially registered, is facing a widespread campaign in the international media attempting to question its efficacy or even safety.
At a time when several countries agreed with Moscow to supply or produce the “Sputnik V” vaccine in their territory, the European Commission affirmed that it guaranteed the purchase of 1.2 billion doses of vaccines developed by various companies, including “Biontech” , “AstraZenka” and “Johnson & Johnson, Sanofi and Moderna. The European Medicines Agency revealed that initial talks are also taking place with the Russian producer of the” Sputnik V vaccine.
Biden Administration Training
The team of new US President Joe Biden, who will take office on January 20, includes several of his former supporters and colleagues, including Tony Blinken, who will take over the Biden administration as secretary of state. Blinken is known for his anti-Russian stances and for saying that Biden will take on his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, rather than “honor” him. As for the Ministry of Defense, it will be assumed by General Lloyd Austin, the mastermind of Washington’s strategy to combat ISIS, the first African-American to hold this position.
Analysts do not rule out the possibility that Biden will adopt more flexible positions compared to current president Donald Trump on some of the files on the international agenda, including the question of Washington’s return to the “nuclear deal” with Iran. Nor is it unlikely that the new administration will abandon the famous “deal of the century” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in addition to the possibility that talks on the Paris climate agreement will begin under the Biden administration.
However, the new administration will stay the previous course in several other fundamental avenues, including “deterrence” from China. Similarly, relations between the United States and Russia are not expected to improve under the Biden administration, and Washington is likely to continue the sanctions policy against Moscow, as is Washington’s negative stance on the implementation of the project “Northern Torrent 2 “to transport Russian natural gas to Northern Europe.
Destination of the “START-3” agreement
The United States and Russia must resolve one of the main issues on the international agenda, and that is the subject of the extension of the Strategic Offensive Reduction Agreement (“START-3”), signed in 2010 and whose mandate expires on February 5. “START-3” remains the only document signed between the two superpowers in the field of arms control after the unilateral withdrawal of the Trump administration from the Intermediate and Short-Range Missile Control Treaty.
Trump had declared that “START-3” was not useful for his country, and called for the need to formulate a new agreement that includes China, along with the United States and Russia. Trump recognized the possibility of extending “START-3”, but presented a series of conditions for it, while Moscow offered to extend its term for an additional year without preconditions, while highlighting its willingness to assume, together with Washington, a political commitment to freeze the number of existing warheads. Both countries have them at their current level, but the Russian proposal has remained unanswered by the Trump administration. During his press conference on December 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed Moscow’s readiness for a dialogue with the new administration on this issue, especially since Biden had previously announced his intention to keep “START-3”.
A chance to save the nuclear deal
After two years and six months of uncertainty about the fate of the deal concluded by the International Complex with Iran on its nuclear program in 2015, the parties to the “nuclear deal” had the opportunity to return it to its initial form. Biden has repeatedly said that Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal was a mistake, announcing his intention to review this decision and return the United States to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. However, Biden promised that he would also enter negotiations with Tehran on its missile program, and perhaps on expanding the “deal” with Iran to include other countries in the region.
For its part, Tehran has affirmed its willingness to revert to all its obligations under the nuclear deal in the event that US sanctions are lifted, but has announced its refusal to negotiate its missile program or change the terms of the deal. current.
Brexit … trade with new rules
At the end of December, London reached a trade agreement with the European Union, which will enter into force on January 1, which prevented Great Britain from large economic losses should London leave the European bloc without a deal. The two parties will preserve the freedom of transport of cargo and flights, although they will return to control the borders between them, including health surveillance, and will stop the free movement of citizens with the imposition of the entry visa regime between Great Britain and the European Union. However, the two sides will maintain cooperation in health security related to the fight against the Corona pandemic.
For her part, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s prime minister, said the trade deal will never allow compensation for the losses suffered by the region as a result of “Brexit.” Sturgeon claimed that Britain’s exit from the European Union came against Scotland’s will and called for “the demarcation of our future as an independent European country.”
The end of the Merkel era
Angela Merkel, German Chancellor since 2005, who left the presidency of her party, the Christian Democratic Union at the end of 2018, will not participate in the parliamentary elections to be held on September 26, 2021. The party leader is expected to be elected during his conference scheduled for next January, after it was postponed for Background on the crisis situation.
Presidential elections in Iran
On June 18, Iran will witness a presidential election in which the current president, Hassan Rouhani, who is in office for the second consecutive term, did not participate. Analysts believe that the candidates most likely to participate in the presidential race are Hossein Dehghan, an advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, and Parvez Fattah, a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and former Minister of Energy. There have also been reports previously that former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad intends to run for the presidency. In the opinion of most experts, no candidate from the reformist camp will have much popular support, which means that the conservatives will win.
Syrian elections
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had previously announced that, early next year, he could make a decision about his participation in the regular presidential elections to be held this year. Al-Assad, who has held office since July 17, 2000, won the non-competitive elections of 2000 and 2007, as for the 2014 competitive elections, in which he received, according to official data, 88.7 % of votes. However, many countries refused to acknowledge these results, not to mention that they were not organized in various Syrian regions due to the civil war there.
It is noteworthy that the prospects for future presidential elections remain unclear, as some areas remain outside the control of the central government, led by Idlib, and the eastern areas under the control of Kurdish factions allied with the United States. Notably, the United States has threatened Damascus not to recognize the 2021 elections if the country does not witness political reforms.
Qarabagh
Peace in Karabakh? The coming year may turn into a year of peace and tranquility in the Karabakh region, in light of the results of the signing by the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, on November 9, of a joint declaration that ended the armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the region. And if the truce is maintained in Karabakh, where Russian peacekeepers have been deployed for a period of 5 years, Azerbaijan will be busy rebuilding the areas that Yerevan handed over to Baku under the terms of the tripartite declaration, in addition to Azerbaijan’s plans to build a highway that will link (through the territory of Armenia) between him and the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan.
Reforms in Belarus
Belarus is expected to witness early next year the “All-Belarusian People’s Assembly” to discuss the progress of work on a constitutional reform in the country. Bogdan Bezbalko, a member of the Council for International Relations of the Russian Presidency, linked the prospect of a constitutional reform in the country to the capacity level of the continuous protests in Belarus since last August’s elections, which, according to the authorities, he won by sixth consecutive time Alexander Lukashenko. The Russian expert said that should the electoral wave recede, it will be possible for the authorities to announce that “the people’s representatives” found the reform immature and called for it to be postponed. However, if the protests maintain their current dimensions, the constitutional reform will be carried out in a way that guarantees the transfer of power to the head of the “popular assembly” (and Lukashenko himself will occupy this position), with the withdrawal of some powers of the head of state.
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