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In recent days, US President-elect Joe Biden has spoken sparingly in the presidential election about Iran, saying that he would return to the nuclear deal as a first step and then address other concerns about Iran’s regional influence and its missile capabilities.
But how will the Iranian government react to the US demand that regional issues and missile capabilities be part of the negotiations?
Foreign Policy said the Iranian government’s approach to Biden’s call for inclusive negotiations can be divided into two camps.
The first camp is made up of Conservatives, who recently won an absolute majority earlier this year in the parliamentary elections, and are expected to win the next presidential election, and firmly reject any dialogue with the United States on non-nuclear issues, and their position. it has been strengthened after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. In early 2020 and more recently the eminent nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhryzadeh.
Saeed Jalili, a senior member of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and a former nuclear negotiator during the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, harshly criticized President Hassan Rouhani for discussing the missile issue with French President Emmanuel Macron in a telephone conversation, and asked that those conversations be rejected.
Conservatives believe that just as the West sought to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in previous nuclear talks with Iran, any negotiations on missiles and regional issues would deal a fatal blow to Iran’s national security.
“Negotiations with the United States are completely harmful and prohibited,” said Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament.
During Ahmadinejad’s presidency, when the Conservatives were in power, the world witnessed six years of unsuccessful negotiations between Iran and the West between 2008 and 2014, and this trend may repeat itself if the Conservatives win the next presidential election.
Moderate Camp
The other side is made up of pragmatists and moderates, who, despite the emphasis on the need to strengthen Iran’s deterrence strategy, do not see non-nuclear negotiations as a threat to Iran’s national interests. However, they will not accept that the implementation of the nuclear deal is conditional on regional and missile negotiations.
This field team believes that in possible future negotiations at the regional level, if Iran is pressured to limit its missile capabilities, Iran could adequately raise the issues of Saudi missiles, Israeli nuclear warheads and modern weapons purchases by from the Gulf states.
They also argue that there should be no fear of negotiation; Instead, they argue that the negotiations are an opportunity that should be used to bolster Iran’s defense and regional achievements.
For his part, former US President Barack Obama said the Biden administration will stop Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran and will not make the nuclear deal hostage to regional and missile talks, but by returning to the deal This will put pressure on regional players, including Iran. And Saudi Arabia to hold regional talks.
According to the US magazine, it appears that Iran’s willingness to use its influence over the Houthis to end the Yemen war, which Biden insisted and is at the center of Saudi national interests and security, appears to be a golden starting point to achieve it.
Results
However, there are serious obstacles to regional and missile negotiations, and their solution will depend on the foreign policy approach of the Biden team, the first of which is the climate of distrust between Iran and the United States, which is affected by the Trump’s maximum pressure campaign and the assassinations of Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh.
The second is Rouhani’s short term in office. With Biden taking office on January 20, 2021, the two countries will have just five months before the upcoming Iranian presidential elections to reactivate the nuclear deal and work on other issues.
If the Biden administration’s plans to reactivate the JCPOA and lift sanctions do not progress as expected, the two sides will face a serious problem in early February, when hardliners in Iran’s parliament pass a law under which Tehran would abandon all its nuclear obligations, which Rouhani opposed.
