A “new war of attrition”. “ISIS” Attacks Increase in Syrian Territories

Hardly a day goes by in Syria when ISIS announces attacks in separate areas of five Syrian governorates, in a strategy that escalated almost three months ago, and its targets were not limited to local forces without others, but all fighters were withdrawn. on the ground on the Syrian map. From the “Syrian Democratic Forces” in the east to Assad’s forces and opposition factions in the north and west.

The Syrian region of Badia has become the main base from which ISIS cells attack, more than a year after the United States announced the total elimination of its influence, after controlling its last strongholds in the Al-Baghouz area. in the countryside of the Syrian city of Deir Ezzor.

The area of ​​the Syrian Badia is about 80 thousand square kilometers and is distributed in the governorates: Deir Ezzor, Raqqa, Aleppo, Hama, Homs, rural Damascus and Sweida. According to observers, the activity of the ISIS cells in Badia is framed in a radically different strategy from their previous strategies in Combat, especially in terms of fighter mobility or specific targeting methods.

For months, Russia and Assad’s forces have been involved in undeclared military operations in Syria Badia, involving fighter jets, especially in the Badia parts of Hama and Homs, after escalating attacks that have hampered the movement. of civilians and military personnel on the roads that connect from southern Syria to the north in Aleppo governorate.

On the other hand, Kurdish forces in eastern Syria are also involved in security operations against “ISIS” cells, which they announced several times, the last of which was two days ago, targeting officials of the “Autonomous Administration” , in separate areas of Deir Ezzor and Hasaka.

New strategy and tactic
According to the United States Department of Defense (Pentagon) in a report issued on March 31, ISIS maintains a “low level” of its operations within the eastern region of Syria, in addition to its ability to take defensive measures limited in terms of scope, duration and number of combatants.

The US administration is concerned about ISIS’s ability to reconfigure itself in the Syrian desert in a short time, according to the report, “beyond the current capabilities of the United States to neutralize it without having a platform to engage in that.”

Hassan Abu Haniyeh, a researcher in the affairs of jihadist groups, believes that ISIS has a long experience in military and covert actions, and new war tactics, so it certainly does not have something random at the moment, but has a goal and a goal. at the end.

Speaking to Al-Hurra, the Jordanian researcher says that after losing the Al-Baghouz region, ISIS announced a direct change in its strategy from “classic wars” to “wars of attrition” and guerrilla wars, which it is now applying in the Syrian region of Badia against local forces in conflict.

The researcher explains that the “ISIS” organization has adapted on a structural level in recent months and has canceled the entire old organizational structure based on direct control, as it tended to “separate the organizational mandate between Iraq and Syria at an early stage. , as part of the steps to move to traditional guerrilla wars. ”

From centralization to decentralization
When it comes to the Syrian region of Badia, from which the attacks of the “ISIS” cells come, it is a desert region in which there are only hills, plateaus and desert, which raises questions about the resources on which they depend. cells for his way of life, and the nature of his public life, especially from the zone where he is active in a barren area where only monsters live.

In addition to the concentration in the Syrian region of Badia, it is notable that there are cells living within the social milieu in Syria, especially in the areas east of the Euphrates in the Deir Ezzor camp, in addition to the Daraa governorate circles, in which ISIS fighters were stationed in previous years in the Yarmouk Basin region in the Western Countryside.

Researcher Hassan Abu Haniyeh points out that the “ISIS” organization currently operates in Syria in small groups distributed in separate areas, in addition to cells located in cities, known as “sleeping cells”.

The researcher says that “the organization is not in a hurry and does not depend now on reactions. Rather, it works according to a plan in which the objectives have been clearly established by the central leadership”, adding that ISIS, in the framework From his new comeback now, he has gone from a centralized state to a decentralized state. , Which applied to the top of the pyramid by what is called “the prince of the state” and then “cutters, detachments and cells”.

The “Institute for the Study of War” had stated that “ISIS” built small groups from the remnants of its forces that it formed in 2011, and was able to control Mosul, Fallujah and other cities in Iraq, and control the most of eastern Syria in just three years. The group has made plans to fight in a next phase of the war.

According to researcher Abu Haniyeh, ISIS is now also following its “strategic strategy of patience” and is currently awaiting the situation in northeast Syria, whether with the withdrawal of the United States of America or the outbreak of a new military conflict between Turkey and the Kurdish forces.

What resources do cells depend on?
Despite confirmed conversations about ISIS activity in the Syrian Badia, and what the latter confirms with official announcements from time to time, there are no precise figures on the number of active fighters, who appear to be, according to observers, separate each other in separate geographic areas, whether in cities or desert areas. .

A media source from the Daraa governorate told the Al-Hurra website that “ISIS” cells are widely active in southern Syria, and have the most prominent role in the killings taking place in the region, and affect opposition figures and others affiliated with the Assad regime, including officials and elements.

The source, who requested anonymity, added that during the control of the Yarmouk Basin area in the western Daraa countryside, a significant number of ISIS fighters leaked between the towns and villages in the area, then joined from one way or another within the local formations that operate in the area.

The source continues: “The type of killings, their timing and the details related to them lead ISIS cells to back them up.” The source gave an example of this with the assassination of a leader of the opposition factions, last year, at the same time that the opposition leader carried out an execution that he carried out against an ISIS fighter. In 2018.

In turn, researcher Hassan Abu Haniyeh points out that ISIS has the human capacity and experience in these areas, both in Badia and in the rest of the Syrian cities, which are of tense security.

He says: “At a financial level, according to state intelligence, he has about $ 100 million, but I estimate he has more than $ 300 million and has investments in false names.” He added: “He has no great expenses, except for the fighters and some families, and before his recent withdrawal from Al-Baghouz he was left hiding weapons and money in vast areas.

Contrary to what he previously worked on, the researcher continues that ISIS cells are currently pursuing “deadly tactics” through ambushes, assassinations and some improvised explosive devices, far from using previous tactics.

Looking at the beginning of 2020 and even now, according to the researcher, there is a high pace of organizational operations, which is calculated and not random, so observers expect there to be more growth as the region remains as it is in terms of stress from security, and the absence of opportunities for political openness.