[ad_1]
The next elections will be between the right-wing parties (Jacques Goyes / AFP)
Israel is heading for its fourth elections in less than two years, on March 23, after the Israeli Knesset dissolved at midnight last night, because the government was unable to pass a state budget.
While at first glance it seems that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suffered a defeat by avoiding postponement of the elections, and this was his main objective in the last maneuvers, in the last two years, since the dissolution of his fourth government in December. of 2018, he managed to control the Israeli stage. Specifically, even when it failed three times in a row, in three electoral battles, beginning with the April 2019 elections, then the September 2019 elections and finally the March 2020 elections, by securing a majority for a right-wing coalition that it removed. to his leadership, granting him a law that would avoid a criminal court of charges. Corruption directed at him officially.
It was Netanyahu’s luck that his main opponent in all three battles, General Benny Gantz, with little political experience, was weary from the first two rounds of confronting Netanyahu, and broke down in negotiations to fulfill his own wishes to reach out. the prime minister’s chair at all costs, fully delivering on his electoral promises.
Netanyahu managed to trap General Gantz in the window of an emergency government, which declared in his founding agreement that it would be based on the partnership principle, although Gantz brought with him only half of the seats to a coalition government (the Kahol alliance Lavan with Yesh Atid Telem won 33 seats), which weakened him against Netanyahu, especially after Netanyahu managed during the short life of the government (almost seven months) to manipulate Gantz and his party, relying on General Gantz not to He would risk leaving the government, waiting for Netanyahu to implement the rotation agreement with him.
Netanyahu is fortunate that his main opponent in all three battles, General Benny Gantz, has little political experience, is tired of the first two rounds of confronting Netanyahu, and has broken down in negotiations to fulfill his own wishes to achieve. the office of prime minister at any cost.
Throughout the life of the government, Netanyahu has wanted to insult Gantz and his most prominent partner, General Gabi Ashkenazi, ignoring them, not informing them about the normalization talks with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and finally Morocco, and even without informing General Gantz, despite being Minister of Security, about the decision to appoint a new Mossad chief. To use his uniqueness in these achievements without Gantz being able to claim that he and his party were partners in their realization.
From the beginning, Netanyahu created a crisis with General Benny Gantz, who was retiring again and again, and had it not been for the rebellion of three Kahol Lavan legislators, and their vote yesterday against the law that extends the deadline to approve budget. Israel would not have gone to the elections yesterday and Netanyahu would have had a deadline for more. Negotiations with Gantz, and an attempt to avoid elections, or at least hold them in May instead of March, which would allow him to use the Corona pandemic vaccine, and recent normalization agreements, especially with Morocco, in the electoral battle .
However, the withdrawal of former minister Gideon Saar from the Likud, and his announcement to run in the elections against Netanyahu, shuffled the cards of the Israeli political arena and showed the possibility of a candidate from the core of the Israeli right and from within the Likud, may he be able to defeat Netanyahu and form a right-wing government coalition.
Netanyahu caused a crisis from the beginning with General Benny Gantz, who was retiring again and again, and if it had not been for the rebellion of three MPs from the Kahol Laffan party, and their vote yesterday against the law that extends the deadline to approve the budget, Israel would not have gone to the elections yesterday.
Sa’ar’s appearance on stage as a strong competitor increased internal tension in Kahol Laffan’s party and signs of rebellion against Gantz’s appeasement policy with Netanyahu, culminating in Gantz’s submission to internal pressures and the reversal of the understandings that were announced Sunday night with Likud.
But this withdrawal was not enough, or perhaps it was too late, so the rebellion of three of his party against him and his vote against the law to extend the deadline to approve the budget, a fatal blow to attempts to prolong the life of the government, and also a fatal blow to the future of the Kahol Laffan party, and to the political future of General Benny Gantz.
According to Israeli polls in recent days, specifically those of Channel 12 and Public Channel, which were 11, the party map in Israel predicts the definitive disappearance of the Labor Party, and the Kahol Laffan Party falling to 5 seats. Your competition in the next elections.
According to the two polls, the pure right parties get 82-83 seats (not including the Telem Yesh Atid seats led by Yair Lapid, who describes himself as a center party, even if his positions are right-wing) from the 120 seats in the Knesset, while the center-right “Yesh” Telem Atid “party won 13 seats according to Kan Channel 11, and 16 seats according to Channel 12, leaving practically 5 seats to the left, 5 for the Meretz party. and 11 seats for the Joint List of Arab Parties, which have recently suffered strong differences between its components that threaten the split of the Islamic movement led by Mansour. ” Abbas reported.
The results of these polls mean that the next elections will be practical, and open, without frills or unreal designations (such as marking the Kahol Laffan party so far as an intermediate party) only among the right-wing parties, among the field that Netanyahu now leads, and is made up of the Likud party and the two Haredi Shas parties. Torah Judaism united, and this field without a right-wing party led by Naftali Bennett won 43 seats, according to the Channel poll, it was 11 and 45 seats according to the Channel 12 poll.
On the other hand, the anti-Netanyahu camp led by Sa’ar, who leads the “New Hope and Unity for Israel” party, also includes the Yisrael Beiteinu parties led by Avigdor Lieberman, Yesh Atid Telem led by Yair Lapid and Kahul Lavan, and according to the polls, it has 46 seats according to the Channel 12 poll and 45 seats. According to the Channel 11 poll, “Kan”.
Based on these results, the two sides will have to persuade the Yamina party led by Naftali Bennett to join one of them to get closer to the possibilities of forming a new government.
In the event that the Yemina party led by Naftali Bennett joins Netanyahu’s field, the size of this field will be 58 according to the Cannes Channel 11 poll, and 58 also according to the Channel 12 poll.
If Naftali Bennett joins the anti-Netanyahu camp, this camp will receive 61 seats according to the Kan Channel 11 poll and 59 seats according to Channel 12.
Only if the left-wing Meretz party agrees to support the anti-Netanyahu camp led by Gantz will this camp, according to these two polls, reach a 65-seat coalition.
But these results may only be temporary, especially if the Kahol Laffan party disintegrates and does not stand for election, or in the event that new parties emerge that are capable of surpassing the threshold and winning at least 4 seats, or a little. more, that they could decide the face of Israel and Netanyahu’s training possibilities. His sixth government.
Another piece of information extracted from these results, which is that the Joint List of Arab Parties, and under the control of the right, especially the appearance of Gideon Sa’ar, and the absence of a candidate who can be described as mediator, will not be this party. time in the voting process on who will be in charge of forming the government, unlike the recent elections, When the Joint List decided to vote on General Gantz to assign him to form a government, they took the assignment and used it to form a government of national emergency with Netanyahu, whose term ended at midnight with the dissolution of the Knesset.
[ad_2]
