The government has a long way to go and a package of US sanctions next month

The Lebanese await a new meeting between Presidents Michel Aoun and Saad Hariri. However, there is no indication that the hot spots are subject to a quick fix, despite talks over the past two days about the success of Hezbollah’s mediation to persuade the two sides to initiate a logical process of concessions. leading to a solution.

According to Aoun, the issue is related to the origin of Hariri’s decision to monopolize the political representation of Christians and Muslims, but with the will to reach an “equitable” agreement with the Shiite duo and Walid Jumblatt, and “break” the Free Patriotic Movement with its possession of a point of progress in the absence of the “Lebanese Forces” by the government and its agreement on the one hand, With the marada of the second-hand current. Simply put, President Aoun’s fears, and certainly those of Deputy Gebran Bassil, appear to be that Hariri is right now the spearhead of the new and old alliance in which he includes President Nabih Berri and former Representative Walid Jumblatt. , with Suleiman Franjieh directly and Samir Geagea indirectly.
Aoun and Bassil know that Hezbollah refuses to back a government they do not accept. And the party took the initiative to try to “close the gap” by presenting a proposal to Bassil that would allow him to obtain a balanced bloc of Christian participation (six out of nine ministers), allowing him to ally himself with Hezbollah (two ministers out of four Shiites). to have a truly idle third. But Bassil rejects the idea on the basis of several accounts, confirming that he does not want to get into a confrontation with others. And he sent, in various ways, publicly and through intermediaries, messages to Berri and Hariri in particular that he has no interest in a bone fracture battle, and that he must relieve himself of some pressure due to the US sanctions, does not push him to stubbornness and refuses to compromise. But Bassil realizes that the matter is not done wishfully and thus succeeded, in cooperation with President Aoun, in provoking Bkerke, who showed no real sympathy for the Aounists, but touched on an “attempt to return to impose the labor rules that existed before 2005 “, when the Muslim trio was (Hariri, Berri and Jumblatt), and in alliance with the” Christian allies “of Syria, it has Christian representation in the government, parliament and public administration .
This is in terms of internal accounts. In terms of foreign accounts, Hariri, who receives the most pressure, told his visitors a few days ago that the pressure between the United States and Saudi Arabia to form a government “devoid of Hezbollah” still valid. And that Riyadh and Washington originally did not welcome support for “Hezbollah’s part of Christian allies,” that is, the Free Patriotic Movement and President Aoun, in addition to the fact that Hariri and the rest of the forces have not yet captured no hint of the expected change in US policy toward Lebanon under the new administration. Even a European official told a Lebanese visitor a few days ago: “I don’t think anyone on US President-elect Joe Biden’s team has spoken the word Lebanon yet.”
And what worries everyone here are the repeated American messages from the current administration; As undersecretary of state David Schenker promises a “parting gift” from the Donald Trump administration, which may arrive in Beirut on the sixth of next month, in the form of a new sanctions package based on anti-corruption law, and includes a broader sample of figures considered close to more than one side. Of the ruling political class. The measure was interpreted as an additional threat to the main benchmarks, headed by Hariri, or as a late settling of accounts with figures that did not fully comply with US policies.

Schenker promises a “parting gift” next month in the form of a new sanctions package

The sanctions file is not limited only to the Americans, since the European parties have explicitly referred to the matter again, but there is talk of two things: the first is that the mechanism for issuing sanctions in Europe is more complex than the of the US government, and that European countries prefer to issue sanctions by the European Union collectively and not just one or two countries. This is what imposes calculations of another kind. However, the Europeans agree with the Americans at this stage to “widen the margin of condemnation for the entire ruling political class without exception.”
In the midst of this transition phase, it seems that one of the reasons preventing the formation of the government now is Hariri’s desire not to take responsibility for tough decisions like lifting subsidies and taking the steps the IMF wants. Berri therefore encourages Parliament to quickly complete the package of decisions that the resigned government needs to raise support in particular, knowing that Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s government seems confused on this matter, and it does not appear, by all indications, that there is a serious understanding within him about how Facing the record, even a prominent minister said that President Diab himself heard the proposals of the ministerial commission regarding the removal of subsidies, but did not give the go-ahead, and prefers to deal with the proposals that it has, and nobody knows how and who prepared them.

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