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Paris – The stagnation of the Lebanese political class and Iranian influence in the crisis-stricken country, in addition to Washington’s reservations about France’s aid strategies, dissipate Paris’s efforts to resolve the economic and political crisis in Lebanon.
During a visit to Paris last month, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made clear that Washington was not satisfied with France’s strategy to help resolve the economic and political crisis in Lebanon.
French President Emmanuel Macron is leading international efforts to lift Lebanon, the former French colony, from the grip of its deepest crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.
He has traveled to Lebanon twice since the big explosion at the Beirut port in August, which wreaked havoc on the city.
“The Lebanese political class is caught up in its own contradictions and is happy to buy time,” said Nadim Khoury of the Arab Reform Initiative.
“(Prime Minister-designate) Saad Hariri cannot form a government and, internationally, the United States will not facilitate French efforts to form a government,” he added.
The United States’ objection to Macron’s plan centers on Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group that wields enormous power in Lebanon and has been designated by Washington as a terrorist organization.
Hariri, a former prime minister, was tasked with forming a government after Mustafa Adib resigned in September. So far, Hariri has found it difficult to form a government that shares power with all Lebanese parties, including Hezbollah.
Macron is trying to use the historic influence of Paris in Lebanon to persuade rival Lebanese politicians to adopt a road map and form a new government tasked with rooting out corruption, which is a prerequisite for international donors, including the International Monetary Fund, disburse billions of dollars in aid.
He was scheduled to return for a third visit on December 22, but postponed the trip on Thursday, after testing positive for the Corona virus. An official involved in organizing the visit said he could speak to Lebanese President Michel Aoun by phone, but there are no other plans at this time.
From the beginning, the 42-year-old leader faced the stagnation of the divided Lebanese political class, which clashed with each other and ignored international warnings of state bankruptcy, as well as Washington’s rejection of his plans.
Three French officials said Paris was initially unwilling to fill this role for Hariri, after it had previously failed to implement reforms. But without progress in forming a credible government, Macron did not oppose the nomination. France says the elected arm of Hezbollah has a legitimate political role.
The United States has already imposed sanctions on three prominent Hezbollah allied politicians. During a dinner in Paris last month with eight ambassadors, some of them ambassadors from European countries, Pompeo made clear that Washington would impose more measures if Hezbollah were part of the government, according to two people familiar with his visit.
The impasse has serious ramifications for all parties.
Without the support of the United States, international organizations and donors will not give Lebanon the funds it needs to emerge from a financial crisis that, according to the World Bank, will likely cause more than half of the population to fall into poverty to 2021.
After pledging amidst the rubble in Beirut not to abandon the Lebanese people, Macron seeks to show some foreign policy success in the region after emerging empty-handed from high-level initiatives on Libya and Iran in recent years.
For the administration of outgoing US President Donald Trump, taking a tough stance on Hezbollah is crucial to demonstrating that its general policy in the Middle East, including maximum pressure policy on Iran, is effective.
Three diplomats said they did not expect President-elect Joe Biden to change policy quickly, given the nature of the US stance based on bipartisan support and the other priorities of the new administration.
Biden said he plans to backtrack on President Donald Trump’s policy of maximum pressure on Iran, which he described as a “dangerous failure.” But sources familiar with his thinking said he would not distance himself from the use of sanctions.
Warning signs
Disagreements with Washington have exacerbated what has always been a tough challenge for Macron. When he had lunch with Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri on September 1, his goal was to ensure that Berri, the leader of the Shiite Amal movement, committed to a deadline to form a new government.
Macron insisted on a time limit of between 10 and 15 days, according to a source familiar with the meeting. Berri, who is one of the strongest figures in Lebanese political life and participated in the election of key ministers in the past, responded by saying: “God willing, God willing.” Macron raised his hand, declaring his refusal to do so and reiterating his demands.
“The president continues his contacts with various political actors in Lebanon, as promised before,” Macron’s office said.
A week later, although Macron said he had pressured all factions to support his plan, the United States blacklisted two former ministers, one of them from Amal, because of their ties to Hezbollah.
“You are right in saying that the sanctions policy followed by the US administration, without consulting or coordinating with us, has led to a tense situation,” Macron said shortly after, in response to a question that the United States did not appreciate its efforts.
Since then, sanctions have been imposed on Gebran Bassil, Aoun’s son-in-law who heads the Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanon’s largest Christian party, for his ties to Hezbollah. US, European and regional diplomats say new sanctions are on the horizon.
Hezbollah became the dominant force in Lebanon, with elected representatives and government posts. Although Iran’s support has been affected by US sanctions, the party remains one of the pillars of Tehran’s regional influence.
French officials say the US punitive measures have done nothing to change the situation on the ground. “They didn’t stop anything … but they didn’t open the way for anything either,” a French presidential official told reporters on December 2.
In an online conference for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dorothy Shea, the US ambassador to Lebanon, said that while the top priority is to prevent the failure of the state in Lebanon, Washington believes that Hezbollah “ only serves to their Iranian masters ” and said the US measures have an impact.
Israel, America’s staunchest ally in the Middle East, sees Iran as its biggest threat, and Hezbollah sees its main threat to its borders.
Iranian officials said Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is in contact with Tehran to discuss how to deal with Macron’s initiative, but that they will not allow Hezbollah to weaken.
Meanwhile, Macron felt lonely blaming Lebanese politicians for not meeting their commitments.
“As of today, these commitments have not been met,” he said on December 2. So far, nothing proves that they were anything more than words. This is what I regret ”.
