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The Iranian regime faced difficult options to respond to the assassination of one of its most prominent nuclear scientists, Mohsen Fakhri Zadi, on November 27, especially as response operations would undermine any sign of rapprochement with the new US administration led by Joe. Biden.
Zadeh’s assassination raised fears of a growing conflict in the Middle East and an increased threat from Iran to its neighbors or the interests of the United States, but experts rule out that Tehran could initiate retaliation in the coming weeks or “put test Trump’s patience. “
Daniel Deptress of the National Interest wrote that “the last thing Washington needs is a scene of running into a conflict in the Middle East.”
He added that the assassination of Fakhri Zadeh, roughly a year after “Quds Force” leader Qassem Soleimani was killed in a US raid into Iraq, “clearly indicates” how quickly events in this region can spin out of whack. control “.
In Operation Soleimani, the administration of US President Donald Trump “managed to defuse the situation without killing a single American (although more than 100 US soldiers were diagnosed with brain injuries due to a retaliatory missile attack on US forces in Iraq) ”.
After the recent operation, the writer says: “It will require a joint effort” between the Trump administration and President-elect Joe Biden, who will take office next year “to ensure that Washington is not caught in another senseless war in The middle east”.
Fakhrizadeh, considered one of Iran’s leading scientists in the field of nuclear energy, was killed in an attack near Tehran. There are many accounts of its causes, but Israel has been accused.
Just hours after the assassination, senior Iranian officials vowed to respond, and militants staged protests criticizing the government’s diplomatic reach and calling for the withdrawal of the 2015 nuclear deal Tehran signed with the group of major countries.
Biden is waiting
However, the strategist and retired US Army colonel, Anthony Schaeffer, ruled out in an interview with Al-Hurra that Iran would undertake any “military or terrorist” operation at this stage because it will wait for what will happen in January, referring to the taking of possession of Biden.
The director of Iran’s program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, Alex Vatanka, predicted in an interview with Al-Hurra that the Iranian regime will continue its threats not only to avenge the assassination of the nuclear scientist, but also the assassination of Soleimani. , who was killed in a US raid last January.
But the expert also ruled out that Iran would respond at least for the next few weeks, because the Iranians “do not want to risk testing Trump in this transition period,” and they also want to wait to see the possibility of engaging in diplomatic negotiations with a new administration led by Biden.
The new defense minister
Schaeffer believes that Biden’s choice of retired general, Lloyd Austin, to take over the Ministry of Defense will also be reflected in this file. The military commander, who told Al-Hurra from sources that he is “very aware of what is happening in the Middle East,” served in Iraq and Afghanistan “at critical times and when in charge. The service will have a good understanding. of Iran’s position, ”according to the retired US military.
“I think Iran will wait to see what happens more than anything at this point,” Scheffer added. They will not carry out hostilities, perhaps only symbolic actions. “
Vatanka also believes that Iran may take some limited retaliation, but will not dare to attack the United States. And he notes that all the figures in Biden’s circle condemned the recent attack, and some of them might overlook a limited response, but things would be different if Tehran launched a major operation that would drag the United States into conflict.
He believes that Biden wants Iran to “exercise restraint and not allow retaliation to negatively affect its vision for the future.”
The National Interest report indicates that a large part of the Iranian elite does not want to act recklessly at this stage. They realize that Biden will be president of the United States in less than two months, which means that the “maximum pressure” campaign practiced by the Trump administration “may become a thing of the past.” soon”.
In the wake of the latest operation, the conservative-dominated Iranian parliament passed a bill requiring the government to halt UN inspections of Iranian nuclear sites in early February 2021 if US sanctions are not lifted and that officials increase uranium enrichment rates.
Fischer considered that this step by Iran “aims only to create challenges for the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United States and the United Nations, in the coming year.”
Fakhrizadeh, who was a professor of physics and an officer in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, said of him, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in 2018, that he was the director of the Iranian nuclear weapons project, and this position strengthened speculation that Israel was behind his murder, although it did not explicitly admit it.
Two of Fakhrizadeh’s sons described the murder as “it really was like a war”, noting that their mother was sitting next to their father during the murder, but was not injured.
If all goes well with the new American administration, Vatanka hopes Iran will shift its focus from the United States to Israel.
On the propaganda side, you will find it easier to focus on Israel, as opposed to the United States, as it has no relations with it and there is no hope of negotiating with it. As for the United States, it must enter into a dialogue with it and reach an agreement.
