[ad_1]
And anticipating what the next few days will bring, London and Brussels yesterday achieved a simple breakthrough, which was to reach an agreement on a set of arrangements related to Northern Ireland after “Brexit”. A deal under which London would cancel three controversial provisions of the bill before Parliament, which would have deprived Brussels of any role in future trade deals between the province and Ireland. This agreement came as a result of discussions between British Minister Michael Gove and European Commission Vice President Maros Sivkovic on ways to maintain trade relations without border obstacles and to ensure there are no restrictions on movement and communication between Ireland. North and Great Britain.
For the foreseeable future, this issue would facilitate Johnson’s mission during his visit to Brussels, after German Minister for European Affairs Mick Roth demanded that London restore “trust” in relations. After the last round of talks between the two negotiating delegations in Brussels, Johnson had a telephone conversation with the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, during which she invited him to go personally to the capital of the European Union. However, the two sides indicated, in a joint statement, the continuing divergence on many key issues. That is why, Johnson said, during his visit to a London hospital in preparation for the launch of the “Corona” virus vaccination campaign: “I am always optimistic, but I must be frank with you, the situation is delicate now.” And while he added that “our friends must realize that the UK has left the European Union” to achieve British sovereignty, he stressed that “we are still far from that,” adding that the country faces many options.
The absence of the trade agreement will represent a double shock with the epidemic crisis
While the leaders of the 27 member states of the European Union are scheduled to participate in a summit to be held tomorrow Thursday, the European chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, and his British counterpart, David Frost, held a round of talks in Brussels, to examine progress made and prepare a report for your reference. After briefing European Union ministers on the latest developments, Barnier affirmed that the bloc’s position is unified and tweeted: “We will never sacrifice our future for the present. “Access to our market comes with conditions.”
Meanwhile, the talks remain stalled over the same three issues: European fishermen’s access to British waters, the mechanism to resolve differences in the future agreement and the guarantees that the European Union requires from London in terms of competition in exchange for the Britain’s right to access its vast market without commissions or fees. Portions. Since its formal separation from the European Union on January 31, the UK has been enforcing European rules. As for its actual exit from the single market and the customs union, it will take place on December 31, at the end of the transitional period. In the absence of an agreement, exchanges between London and the European Union will be subject, as of January 1, to the rules of the World Trade Organization, which means that tariffs and customs quotas will be imposed, posing the risk of a new shock in economies already weakened by the crisis of the “Covid” epidemic. – 19 ».
With or without a deal, Britain’s exit from the European Union is expected to cause further volatility in the British economy, especially as the expected improvement appears to take time. If the size of the damage depends on the outcome of the current negotiations between London and Brussels, economists expect “Brexit” to be financially painful. The prestigious London University of Economics comes to expect that “Brexit” without a deal will be more expensive than “Covid-19”, because its repercussions will be evident over a longer period. The previous Conservative government did not hide the impact of “Brexit” in official documents that were released at the end of 2018. According to estimates at the time, the “no-deal” separation would cause GDP to fall 7.6% in 15 years. If a deal is reached, it will fall by 4.9%, which is quite a large effect and is an indicator of the challenge of leaving the European Union.
In other words, the absence of a trade agreement will have a double impact with the epidemic crisis, and will result from January 1 in the reimposition of the rules of the World Trade Organization with sometimes exorbitant customs tariffs on a wide range of products, from auto parts to meat. In addition, many companies will see their costs rise overnight and prices for consumers are expected to rise, especially in the area of fresh food and produce, much of which is imported from the European Union. This reality may be exacerbated by the collapse of the pound, which will increase the prices of imported goods. However, a trade agreement is far from solving all problems and will continue to be less beneficial than a single market that guarantees smooth exchanges with the continent.
Subscribe to «News» on YouTube here
