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Habib Maalouf wrote in “Al-Akhbar”:
The repercussions of climate change are no less catastrophic than those caused by the Corona pandemic. Day after day, we see more indications of the devastating effects of this phenomenon, while the state, as usual, is in a deep sleep and its parties fight for control of the crumbs.
Lebanon is beginning to get a glimpse of what climate change and the seasons really mean. This year’s cold (as in recent years) is being delayed, and the beginning of December witnessed a notable increase. The country, which has always been known for its moderate climate, has begun to witness extreme weather events such as unprecedented torrential rains that fall in a short time, causing flooding, torrential rains, soil erosion and shortage of fresh water in the impossibility to increase underground storage.
This is one of the many problems posed by the phenomenon of climate change, which was left out of any official discussion, and was not addressed by any strategy or plan, nor by the water law that was reformed in Parliament on September 30. The worst thing is that instead of making an in-depth review of this issue, the discussion was limited to quota issues (such as the conflict of powers between the Ministry of Energy and Water and the regulatory authority) at the expense of strategic problems such as drought, the evaporation and contamination of the most important vital resource in a country like Lebanon.
Regardless of the figures reported in the World Bank reports on the increase in water demand (which it continues to exaggerate and exaggerate to boost investment projects), the most important problem of climate change is its negative effects on water wealth. Global warming will have a major impact on biodiversity and agriculture and will be reflected in the scarcity of fresh water. Perhaps the expectation of an increase in droughts is the indisputable result, which means a decrease in rainfall (international and local reports speak of a decrease in rates that range between 5% and 30%), or an increase and fall in abundance in short periods, which causes floods and prevents underground reservoirs from benefiting from them due to their flow. In addition, an increase in global temperature (between half a degree and 4 degrees according to expectations) means a rapid melting of snow and a decrease in the aquifer. The rule in this regard is clear: the longer snow stays on mountain tops, the greater the ability of surface springs to yield, either in terms of quantity or in terms of time and continuity of flow. Global warming also means more evaporation of surface water. This is not a detail in a country like Lebanon that decided, in its reckless policy, to build some 40 surface dams, in violation of the most basic rules of “adaptation” to climate change. Storing water in open dams exposes it to increased evaporation and contamination, especially with the expected increase in global temperature.
The reduction in precipitation means an increase in the extraction of groundwater and, therefore, an increase in the salinization of fresh water in coastal areas close to the sea. Not to mention the further increase in salinity of this water, resulting from melting ice and rising sea levels, which will also lead to increased salinization of fresh groundwater. Furthermore, there are no adequate studies so far on the impact of rapid snowmelt on the tourism sector associated with winter skiing.
The study of the impact of climate change on agriculture is also still in its infancy. Although some speak of “positives,” such as planting some coastal fruit trees in the highlands as the land warms, this “positive logic” does not take into account the crops that will be negatively affected by global warming, nor the new diseases that may arise from it. There are no precise studies yet on the impact of climate change and high temperatures on the lives of many living organisms, especially agricultural pests that can increase their ability to kill crops and negatively affect agricultural wealth and food security. Note that several international studies have confirmed the impact of global warming on ocean acidification (due to carbon dioxide absorption), removal of many marine species, and threat to marine food security.
Climate change has dangerous effects on biodiversity in general, although studies in this area are very rare. An almost orphan discussion on this topic began in 2014, when the Lebanon Forestry Project (LRI) funded by the United States Agency for Development organized a round table to discuss the results of a study on the possible implications of the climate change in the distribution of some forest tree species, and concluded that twenty species were recommended. By protecting them (!), Taking into account that no biological or ecological scientist can identify the wild trees most vulnerable to climate change, nor the separation between trees and the rest of the organisms that inhabit the ecosystem itself.
This problem opens up to another, no less serious problem, which is that of ecological compensation and reforestation campaigns that play a role in the “reduction” of emissions. It is not known why the separation between reforestation and protection of forests from fire, urbanization, quarries, sandboxes, construction of random roads … It is also not known, according to what standards, the species that are supposed to be planted, preferably municipal, are chosen and not imported or alien to ecosystems. She is used to it. The effects of exotic crops and the diseases they bring with them on endemic organisms have not been studied either.
Paris Agreement: ratify
The House of Representatives passed Law 115/2019 on the Paris Climate Agreement of 2016. Under this law, Lebanon committed to providing a “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) every five years, and committed to reduce your emissions by 30% by 2030, which is divided by 15% in one way. Unconditional and 15% conditional on receiving international support. Taking into account that the provision of the Determined Contribution at the National Level is mandatory, its implementation is not binding and depends on national circumstances and the level of ambition of each country. Please note that 160 contributions were submitted worldwide, including 20 Arab countries. Lebanon, as one of the countries that ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was concluded in 1992, has submitted several communications to the General Secretariat of the Convention.
Reports without strategies
According to Lebanon’s second communication to the Framework Agreement on Climate Change in 2011 (the figures did not change in the third communication in 2014), by 2040 the temperature is expected to rise one degree Celsius on the coast and two degrees inland, and between 3.5 and 5 degrees by 2090. Also expected. That the amount of rain falls between 10% and 20% by 2040 and between 25% and 45% by 2090.
This will have a severe negative impact on the agricultural sector, forest life and water resources, and on public health, due to the increase in deaths from heat in the summer. However, the studies were not expanded or modified policies, especially in two fundamental areas: the mitigation of climate change and the measures necessary to adapt in the long term to this devastating phenomenon.
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