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(Haitham Al-Mousawi)
This is one of the many problems posed by the phenomenon of climate change, which was left out of any official discussion, and was not addressed by any strategy or plan, nor by the water law that was reformed in Parliament on September 30. The worst thing is that instead of making an in-depth review of this issue, the discussion was limited to quota issues (such as the conflict of powers between the Ministry of Energy and Water and the regulatory authority) at the expense of strategic problems such as drought, the evaporation and contamination of the most important vital resource in a country like Lebanon.
Regardless of the figures reported in the World Bank reports on the increase in water demand (which it continues to exaggerate and exaggerate to boost investment projects), the most important problem of climate change is its negative effects on water wealth. Global warming will have a major impact on biodiversity and agriculture and will be reflected in the scarcity of fresh water. Perhaps the expectation of an increase in droughts is the indisputable result, which means a decrease in rainfall (international and local reports speak of a decrease in rates that range between 5% and 30%), or an increase and fall in abundance in short periods, which causes flooding and prevents the use of underground reservoirs due to its flow. In addition, an increase in global temperature (between half a degree and 4 degrees according to expectations) means a rapid melting of snow and a decrease in the aquifer. The rule in this regard is clear: the longer snow stays on mountain tops, the greater the ability of surface springs to yield, either in terms of quantity or in terms of time and continuity of flow. Global warming also means more evaporation of surface water. This is not a detail in a country like Lebanon that decided, in its reckless policy, to build some 40 surface dams, in violation of the most basic rules of “adaptation” to climate change. Storing water in open dams exposes it to increased evaporation and contamination, especially with the expected increase in global temperature.
Despite the multiple repercussions of the climate change phenomenon, it was left out of any official investigation and was not covered by any strategy or plan.
The reduction in precipitation means an increase in the extraction of groundwater and, therefore, an increase in the salinization of fresh water in coastal areas close to the sea. Not to mention the further increase in salinity of this water, resulting from melting ice and rising sea levels, which will also lead to increased salinization of fresh groundwater. In addition, there are no adequate studies, so far, on the impact of the rapid melting of snow on the tourism sector linked to winter skiing.
The study of the impact of climate change on agriculture is also still in its infancy. Although some speak of “positives”, such as planting some coastal fruit trees in the highlands as the land warms, this “positive logic” does not take into account the crops that will be adversely affected by global warming, nor the new diseases that may arise from it. There are no precise studies yet on the impact of climate change and high temperatures on the lives of many living organisms, especially agricultural pests that can increase their ability to kill crops and negatively affect agricultural wealth and food security. Note that several international studies have confirmed the reflection of high temperatures in the acidification of the oceans (due to their absorption of carbon dioxide), the elimination of many marine species and the threat of marine food security.
Climate changes have dangerous impacts on biodiversity in general, although studies in this area are very rare. An almost orphan discussion on this topic was opened in 2014, when the Lebanon Forestry Project (LRI) funded by the United States Agency for Development organized a round table to discuss the results of a study on the possible implications of the climate change in the distribution of some forest tree species, and concluded that twenty species were recommended. By protecting them (!), Taking into account that no biological or ecological scientist can identify the wild trees most vulnerable to climate change, nor the separation between trees and the rest of the organisms that live in the ecosystem itself.
This problem opens up to another, no less serious, which is the issue of ecological compensation and reforestation campaigns that play a role in “reducing” emissions. It is not known why the separation between reforestation and forest protection from fire, urbanization, quarries, sandboxes, construction of random roads … Nor is it known, according to what rules, the species that are supposed to be planted, preferably municipal , and not imported or alien to the ecosystems that Its used to. The effects of exotic crops and the diseases they bring with them on endemic organisms have not been studied either.
Paris Agreement: ratify
The House of Representatives passed Law 115/2019 on the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement. Under this law, Lebanon committed to providing a “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) every five years, and committed to reduce your emissions by 30% by 2030, divided by 15% in one way. Unconditional and 15% conditional on receiving international support. Taking into account that the provision of the Determined Contribution at the National Level is binding, its implementation is not binding and depends on national circumstances and the level of ambition of each country. Please note that 160 contributions were submitted worldwide, including 20 Arab countries. Lebanon, as one of the countries that ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was concluded in 1992, has submitted several communications to the General Secretariat of the Convention.
Reports without strategies
According to the second communication from Lebanon to the Framework Agreement on Climate Change in 2011 (the figures did not change in the third communication in 2014), by 2040 the temperature is expected to rise one degree Celsius on the coast and two degrees inland, and between 3.5 and 5 degrees by 2090. Also expected. That the amount of rain falls between 10% and 20% by 2040 and between 25% and 45% by 2090. This will have a severe negative impact on the agricultural sector, forest life and water resources, and on public health due to the increased deaths from extreme heat in the summer. However, the studies were neither expanded nor modified the policies, especially in two fundamental areas: the mitigation of climate change and the measures necessary to adapt in the long term to this devastating phenomenon.
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