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The most dangerous event in those scenes was the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, with an intelligence operation near Tehran. It was not the first assassination attempt on the “godfather” of the Iranian nuclear project, nor was it the first scientist whose life was attacked. Since the assassination of Egyptian scientist Samira Moussa in August 1952, systematic killings of Arab scholars have continued, whenever there appears to be accumulation and scientific advancement taking place. This is how Dr. Saeed Al-Sayed Badir, Dr. Yahya Al-Mashad and a long list of prominent academics were reached among the security vulnerabilities.
For a relatively long time, the Iraqi nuclear project aimed to assassinate scientists one by one. Iran is now at the center of the objectives, as much as it has gained from the experience and progress accumulated in its nuclear project. This is another type of normalization, normalization killing so that no country in the region has a balance with the Israeli nuclear arsenal.
“Mohsen Fakhrizadeh … remember this name.” This was a hint that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a few months ago at a press conference, in a moment of ecstasy over the arrival of intelligence at what he said was “the Iranian nuclear archive.” There is no evidence that the Israelis actually got into this “secret archive”, but the information that was available about the mastermind behind the Iranian nuclear project was used to damage his life.
On a symbolic level, the arrival of the assassination of the most prominent Iranian scientist is comparable to the assassination of Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the “Al-Quds” Corps, near the Baghdad airport in early 2020. Two systematic attacks in one year resulted in target Iranian political and nuclear projects, the first for abortion and the second for obstruction.
When, where and how will Iran respond? This is the main question posed for strategic political thinking in Iran and beyond. In various formulas, Iranian military leaders claim that “the crime will not go unpunished.” Parliamentarians tighten up as the executive branch tends to what it calls “strategic patience” so that Iran does not fall into a “trap”, in the words of President Hassan Rouhani.
The options are limited and each option has its own calculations and costs. If there is no answer that balances the assassination attack and its effects, then Iran’s prestige may be damaged on its soil. If you engage in hasty responses, you may find yourself embroiled in confusion that achieves your opponents’ goals, and it follows from the opportunities available to relocate at the time of the transfer of power within the American White House.
The most important opportunity is to restore the nuclear deal, which was canceled by outgoing US President Donald Trump, and end the economic sanctions that were imposed on it. By definition, the murder is state terrorism and a violation of international law, but it is based on an American cover up confirmed by the resident of the White House, who leaves it on January 20. Israel boasted of the assassination, without confirming responsibility. She says and does not say, suggest or declare.
In the games of fire, Israel calculates the Iranian reaction and, according to it published in its press, its expectations are directed to several scenarios, the most important of which is the armed attack on its embassies abroad, or the launching of missiles at vital goals within.
What is striking is what the Israeli government tried to throw at two Arab states on the record of potential dangers and explosions, when it asked its citizens not to visit the Emirates and Bahrain without an understandable reason, as Israelis are in many other places, and access to them is not difficult. Why focus on these two countries without the other? Why the link between normalization and fire?
Perhaps it is intended to put pressure on the nerves, so that the pace of normalization advances to levels that were not foreseen by any previous strategic calculation. This is a first hypothesis.
The second hypothesis is to broaden the scope of possible armed confrontations, if they escape any restriction, to include the Gulf states, where oil resources that the world cannot do without, without any consideration for the security, stability and future of the Gulf.
With an objective reading of the balance of arms and geopolitical facts, Israel cannot protect the Gulf, regardless of indictments and indictments. They are wars of entanglement in games of fire without interest or cause.
According to parallel strategic accounts, there is confirmed information, according to Al-Monitor, about secret contacts that the Turkish intelligence chief is making with Israeli officials to reinject new blood into their relations, raise the level of diplomatic representation and end the state of tension and tension. It is a preventive normalization, fearing any pressure Ankara may face from the next US administration on the archives of public liberties and regional conflicts.
The same game is being repeated by re-establishing security cooperation between the Palestinian Authority and Israel, without the latter granting any concessions or being willing to recognize any Palestinian rights.
The tension in the region is synonymous with the acceleration of normalization movements. At the time, Netanyahu tried to use successive incidents to overcome his worsening internal crisis, which heralds possible new elections for the Israeli Knesset, the fourth in two years, presenting himself as a man who was capable, with open American support. of Trump, of reaping normalization agreements with various Arab countries and others along the way, without a concession and assassinating the most important Iranian nuclear symbol without the punishment it deserves.
The declaration of the Secretary of State of the United States, Mike Pompeo, was loaded with meanings and messages, since “Israel is an essential party in any policy destined to surround and confront Iran.”
In the dead time between two administrations, one administration walking away after losing the presidential elections and another preparing to take power, the Israeli prime minister is trying to win many other prizes. Once pressing the foreign administration to move intensely in the region, with the two visits to Pompeo, and to Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in the name of peace, normalization and the reduction of the gaps between the states of the Gulf, without the smell of gunpowder absent from the place. Once creating obstacles for the next administration to block any possibility of a return to the nuclear deal and end sanctions on Iran, or at least excluding those possibilities for the longest possible period during which Israel installs a protector of the region with a poisonous normalization, which cannot continue if there is a real will to resist it with popular action.
* Egyptian writer and journalist
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