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The next president of the United States limited himself to defining the guidelines of his administration’s policy towards Afghanistan, announcing his intention to remain in this country under the name of “fighting terrorism”, without going into the details of the size of the presence. that Donald Trump finally set at 2,500 soldiers, after his decision to withdraw 2,000 soldiers. Additional for the inauguration of his successor. The decision, which came in the wake of his electoral defeat, aims to put some obstacles in the way of the next administration, and torpedo his plans to forcibly return to the region with outdated titles, in parallel to suggesting that he did not break his promise to end the Afghan war, which was translated into the reconciliation document with the “Taliban” movement. At the end of February this year.
Perhaps Biden would be content with a US military presence of 2,500 troops in Afghanistan.
The agreement between Washington and the “Taliban” stipulated that the US administration adhered to a withdrawal schedule (accelerated by Trump), which would continue in parallel with the advance of intra-Afghan negotiations. Given that it is a non-binding agreement, the possibility of the next administration renegotiating its issue or requesting amendments from its body remains valid and probable, especially in light of Biden’s insistence on restoring the reins of global “leadership.” These possibilities could lead to the collapse of the agreement, should one of the new conditions call for keeping US forces in the context of “fighting terrorism” in Afghanistan. The complete withdrawal of the foreign armies was the basis of the negotiations, and later the agreement between the movement and the Trump administration, despite the objection of the Ashraf Ghani government, which sought to put obstacles in the way of implementing its provisions, the first of which was the delay in the implementation of the prisoner swap clause to delay the conclusion of the negotiating table, and subsequently delay the US withdrawal. About three months after the start of the Afghan negotiations in Qatar’s capital Doha, it is possible to move on to the next stage, after agreeing on the rules for the talks. Although the agreement does not go beyond specifying procedures for future discussions, it is considered an important step as it allows negotiators to move forward to discuss key issues. The modest agreement came in response to pressure from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who asked on November 21 to speed up the peace negotiations. A call came a few days after the Pentagon announced that it would withdraw some 2,000 troops from Afghanistan in mid-January, five days before Biden’s inauguration, to speed up the schedule set in the February agreement between Washington and the United States. Taliban. “, Which foresees a complete withdrawal in mid-2021. In this context, Vanda Philpab-Brown of the Brookings Institution believes that Biden may be content with a US military presence, which is limited to 2,500 soldiers. And “if the United States wanted to stay a few months, the Taliban could accept that”, but if Washington wanted to maintain forces in Afghanistan for many years, “(the movement) would not be satisfied with that”, which would bring the situation to zero. On the other hand, the Kabul government fears that the announcement of the withdrawal will lead to a further tightening of the movement at the negotiating table, as the latter realizes that the Americans will leave, leaving behind a weak and beleaguered ally. without many political and military options before him.
The withdrawal announcement, which came ten days after Trump fired his defense secretary, Mark Esper, who had insisted on keeping 4,500 US troops in Afghanistan to support the government during peace talks with the Taliban, did not hear warnings from US allies and officials who were concerned the cut would weaken. Afghan government forces. Before Christopher Miller was appointed Acting Secretary of Defense, the “Pentagon” senior military commanders had claimed that the “Taliban” had failed to meet their obligations with regard to reducing their attacks on government forces and that a further reduction the number of US forces would ease the pressure on the movement in negotiations. In the context of the rejection of the measure, the leader of the Republican majority in the United States Senate, Senator Mitch McConnell, warned of the consequences of accelerating the pace of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, because such a measure would grant Islamic movements extremists a “great propaganda victory” and would lead to something like a “withdrawal”. The humiliating North American of Vietnam ”in 1975. For his part, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that a hasty withdrawal from the alliance would be“ a very high price ”with the risk that this country“ will become a a base for international terrorists ”. But this anxiety will quickly dissipate by noon on January 20, when Biden will be sworn in and, in theory, the Trump era will end. However, the president-elect’s hopes and his speech on “America’s return to confirm its historic role as a world leader” and turn the page on “America First” policies, without them, are highly delusional.
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