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Last Friday, Iranian scientist Fakhri Mohsenzadeh’s operation near Tehran was a severe blow to the Iranian regime in its backyard.
The assassination of Iran’s largest nuclear scientist has revealed security flaws indicating the possibility of infiltration by security forces and that the Islamic Republic is vulnerable to further attacks.
The assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on Friday came after two other security breaches: the theft of the Iranian nuclear archive and a fire at a nuclear facility this year, which some Iranian officials say was the result of a cyberattack.
As Fakhrizadeh is the fifth Iranian nuclear scientist to be killed in a targeting operation since 2010, security experts indicate that Iran’s enemies have discovered its weakness.
Former Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan told state television that Fakhrizadeh was killed for “infiltrating Iran’s security system.”
The security force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps appoints escorts and special officers to protect senior military and civilian officials.
“It is clear that the assassins acted based on detailed information about Fakhrizadeh’s movements,” an Iranian security official told Reuters after Fakhrizadeh was killed in an attack on his car on a highway near Tehran in broad daylight.
“This is clearly a security weakness, and there are many questions that need to be answered,” added the official, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.
He said: “We must know if there are spies among the security personnel and locate the leak, this is necessary for us.”
Iran’s military and rulers accused Israel of killing Fakhrizadeh, whom Israel had identified as a key element in what it says is Iran’s effort to acquire nuclear weapons, despite Tehran’s denials.
Israel has not commented on the incident, but has admitted in the past that it conducted covert operations against Iran’s nuclear program to gather information.
“There are conflicting stories about how Fakhrizadeh was assassinated, but there is certainly some degree of penetration, and this is what worries the Islamic Republic the most,” said Kasra Arabi, Iran analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, a group of experts.
Contrasting scenarios
Iran announced conflicting details about Fakhrizadeh’s assassination. Shortly after the incident, eyewitnesses told state television that a truck had exploded before a group of armed men opened fire on Fakhrizadeh’s car.
“It was a very complex assassination operation carried out remotely with electronic devices,” without the involvement of individuals on the ground, Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told state television on Sunday.
Henry Rom, Senior Analyst at Eurasia Group, said: “We have no idea how true these reports are about the use of a satellite-controlled truck-mounted machine gun, but these accounts serve two main purposes for Tehran: trying to avoid the shame describing the murder as extremely complex. And to show how quickly the mystery of the case was solved.
Iran’s inability to thwart such operations may encourage it to try other operations in the future.
“The existence of significant loopholes in the Iranian nuclear shield certainly raises questions about the role that sabotage can or should play in any future anti-proliferation policy towards Tehran,” said Behnam Bin Talibloo, analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. , a Washington think tank. .
And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced in 2018 that Israel had smuggled hundreds of kilograms of paper and digital files related to Iran’s secret nuclear weapons program from the Islamic Republic. Iran denied it, calling it a hoax.
Fakhrizadeh’s death came months after a US drone strike in Iraq killed Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force, and Tehran responded by firing missiles at US targets in Iraq.
In July, Iran executed a citizen convicted of spying for US and Israeli intelligence. The judiciary said that Mahmoud Mousavi Majd, who was arrested in 2018, had spied on Soleimani, but that this case had nothing to do with Soleimani’s murder on January 3.
“Overwhelming” response or not?
Iran said it would respond “overwhelmingly” to the assassination of Fakhrizadeh.
Political analysts said any retaliatory measures could make it more difficult for US President-elect Joe Biden, who will take office on January 20, from abandoning the “maximum pressure” policy that President Donald Trump has adopted toward Iran.
Biden said that if Iran once again complies with the nuclear agreement it signed in 2015 with world powers, which imposes restrictions on its nuclear program, it will return to the agreement from which Trump withdrew in 2018 and will re-impose sanctions that caused great damage to the Iranian economy.
“Iran will respond, but it will not be a crushing response that can trigger an all-out war with Israel,” said an analyst in Tehran, who asked not to be named.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Iran would avenge Fakhrizadeh’s death “at the appropriate time” but “will not fall into an Israeli trap” in the final weeks of the Trump presidency.
“Given that Trump will remain in the White House for another two months, the escalation options available to Tehran will have to be limited,” Talblo said.
He added: “Although there is talk of a possible military retaliation against Israel directly, this would be a scenario with low probabilities and great impact.”
