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Kissinger presented his vision of the relations between the two great powers, in the context of a symposium organized by the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of the State of New York early last month, and in an interview with the editor of the “Bloomberg” agency, John Mickletwit, days ago. A vision that the former US Secretary of State had alluded to during his participation last year at the “Bloomberg New Economy Forum” in Beijing, when he pointed out that the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing is moving in dire directions. In his opinion, World War I started from a single incident, but in a global circumstance, the collision was more likely. This is a realistic hypothesis in today’s world, as long as the stressors that make the possibility of sliding into an open clash between the two archrivals are the most intense, according to Christopher Lane, professor of international relations at the University of Texas. . And the latter hopes, in the event of a confrontation, that both sides will resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons that do not threaten to annihilate either of them. But no one can guarantee that there will be no recklessness and the use of strategic nuclear weapons.
Perhaps the Donald Trump administration’s stipulation that China be included in the new START treaty, which limits the number of nuclear warheads that the United States and Russia can possess to 1,550, and its insistence that the treaty include, or an alternative to he, both tactical and new nuclear weapons, came with the advice of the military establishment concerned The steady growth of Chinese weapons programs. At this point, the position of Joe Biden, who promised to extend the treaty (it expires in February), without considering modifying it or inviting other countries to join it, remains vague. This imperative awaits the outcome of the steps the next administration intends to take, especially in light of politically heated dossiers and a US-Chinese polar confrontation that could erupt and lead to a third world war in which nuclear weapons are highly likely to be used. , as Kissinger warned last year.
Kissinger advises the Biden administration not to slide its policy toward China towards an aggressive and confrontational approach.
The variable between the messages of the last two years and the current one is the absence of Trump in the image. Therefore, the message was addressed exclusively to the Biden administration, which recommended that it not slide its policy towards China towards an aggressive and confrontational approach, especially since the equation of power between the two countries is almost equivalent, and neither of them has never encountered an equal force in its history. Kissinger explained that currently available military technologies will make “controlling” such a military disaster “more difficult”, compared to previous major military disasters, due to the development of the world’s weapons systems, and after China was able to upgrade its military strength to levels comparable to American power. The solution, then, is to “quickly reconnect the communication bridges” with China, after it was damaged during the years of the Trump administration, to avoid the transformation of a “new cold war” into a catastrophic military confrontation. The call of the former diplomat to draw limits for the confrontation, and his reference to the need to recognize the points of difference between the two countries and to work on the points of convergence between them, to handle an ongoing crisis through endless negotiations, indicates, according to observers, the efforts of the United States to devise a past to drop into a different present. Parallel to his call, Kissinger criticized the anti-China policies that Biden revealed during his election campaign, and in particular his proposal to convene a world conference of democracies versus China, much like the coalition that Trump’s Secretary of State Mike Pompeo , wanted to train to face the century. Chinese. Instead, he suggested opening permanent communication channels to control the pace of relations between the two powers, in order to put a ceiling on the threats that could arise due to the difference in interests and the nature of the system in both countries, warning that contemporary technological developments could fuel the trend to adopt zero-match concepts. That is, the principle that the winning side gets everything.
Kissinger believes that the best way to fine-tune relationships is to forge an alliance to discover the best opportunities for cooperation, allowing and acknowledging differences. In the area of cooperation needs, he hopes that the common epidemic threat will be an opportunity to restore bridges between Beijing and Washington, as soon as the new US president takes office.
He also referred to the European role, believing that the current global balances would place Europe in a very sensitive position between the United States and the Eurasia region, whose forces seek to adjust the balance of power. He believed this would give Europeans an opportunity to play an independent role in US foreign policy, even if they had shown some optimism about the arrival of a president other than Trump to the White House.
When asked what China could do to improve relations with the United States, Kissinger replied: “Of course there are differences on the issue of human rights … It is important that each side understands the other side’s sensitivities, not necessarily solving the problem, but reducing its severity. ” An answer that sums up the American strategy of how to contain and penetrate a civilization through the same door: human rights.
