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Beirut (AFP)
A decade ago, popular revolutions broke out in various Arab countries against authoritarianism, oppression and poverty, and anger toppled presidents and dictatorial regimes that ruled their countries with an iron fist for decades, even if they did not always bring freedom and freedom. desired prosperity.
Only Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has withstood revolution, isolation, war and resentment, despite the destruction, death and displacement that has hit his country and continues to be.
Experts and politicians say that Assad, who many had predicted would come under street pressure weeks after the popular uprising began against him, benefited from the intersection of internal factors, most notably his control of the military and security forces, and external. , mainly the reluctance of the West to use force against him in exchange for decisive military support from Iran and later Russia. Stay. Added to that, patience and investment of the time factor are well known in the Assad family, which has ruled Syria since the early 1970s.
When the peaceful protests began in mid-March 2011, Assad decided to suppress them by force. Soon, a destructive conflict turned into a destructive conflict, exacerbated by the growing influence of jihadist organizations and the interference of various outside parties that contributed to complicating the scene. Al-Assad classified all those who took up arms against him as “terrorists”.
Despite the murder of more than 380,000 people, the arrest of tens of thousands, the destruction of infrastructure, the depletion of the economy, and the displacement and displacement of more than half the population, Assad maintained his position. Today, his forces control more than seventy percent of the country, while the people suffer a severe economic crisis with the exhaustion of state resources and the repercussions of the international sanctions imposed on the regime.
Analysts believe that al-Assad, who succeeded his late father Hafez al-Assad in 2000, inherited from him a cold temperament and mysterious personality, and studied the patience of his hand, and that played a key role in his “steadfastness. “.
Lebanese veteran politician Karim Pakradouni told AFP: “After the whole world demanded his departure years ago and thought he would fall, today he wants to find a solution with him. Assad knew how to reverse the time factor.”
Since the outbreak of the conflict, Assad has not been shy about declaring his great confidence in the ability to win even in his most vulnerable moments.
Pakradouni, who for a long time played the role of mediator between the Syrian regime and the Lebanese parties during the crises in the two countries, added: “Assad did not take any step back. He held all his positions without any modification. He was able to retake most of it. from Syrian lands by military force. “
According to Pakradouni, the Syrian army has shown that it is “an ideological and regular army that managed to continue and protect the regime in the worst situations and did not turn against it as in other countries, and this is what made Assad an exceptional model. in what is known as the Arab Spring revolutions. “
The army, which is the most prominent weapon of dictatorial regimes, remained intact and loyal to the Assad regime, despite the fact that tens of thousands of soldiers deserted from it after the outbreak of the conflict. Meanwhile, the abandonment by the Tunisian army of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali pushed him, pressured by the demonstrations, to leave the country on January 14, 2011 for Saudi Arabia. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak also resigned on February 11, 2011, after realizing that the army was no longer protecting him. A large number of military divisions turned against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, respectively, who fled and left power, before being assassinated by revolutionaries on October 20, 2011. Ben Ali later died in Jeddah and Mubarak in Egypt, because of the consequences of the disease.
Thomas Perret, a researcher at the Institute for Research and Studies on the Arab and Islamic World, explained to France Press that the internal factors that contributed to Assad’s survival in power can be summed up with a title: “ The continued loyalty of the leadership of the army, which has been strengthened for decades by Assad’s relatives and followers ” of the Alawite sect to which he belongs. “They probably made up more than 80 percent of officers in 2011 and held virtually all influential positions” within the military.
A Syrian researcher in Damascus, who refused to reveal his name to France Press, said: “It is not possible to deny the role of the Assad character in his survival, and the persistence and rigor he knows. He was able to restrict all decisions in his own hands and form the army with it completely. “
The structure of the regime did not produce prominent figures who could play a prominent role in their confrontation, but rather “blocked the way for any figure who tried to build a space for him” in the future of the country, according to the same source.
– An American ‘failure’ –
Al-Assad opted for the complex structure of society with the existence of an ethnic division between Arabs and Kurds, and a sectarian one between Sunnis, Alawites and minorities, especially Christianity, which saw him as its protector, especially with the escalation of the role. of Islamic and jihadist organizations.
The Syrian researcher said: “He benefited from the fear of the people of chaos and the fear of his (Alawite) environment for his existence in case of his fall, which made him desperate to defend him in defense of his existence. He also benefited from the absence of effective political forces and the loss of hope in the role of the opposition. “
In February 2012, as Assad’s forces lost ground, the “Friends of Syria” group was formed, which included Western and Arab countries that supported the Syrian opposition. Later, more than a hundred countries recognized at least the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people.
At the time, al-Assad appeared to be an isolated president with growing calls for him to resign, at a time when the Arab League froze Syria’s membership in it, and Western countries imposed sanctions on the regime due to its crackdown. The lion then seemed about to fall.
However, their opponents were unable to form a united front, either at home or abroad.
With the militarization of the conflict, the fighting factions multiplied, receiving support from different parties and countries with their own agendas. With the rise of the Islamic State and its dominance over large areas of the country, the demand for freedom and democracy dissipated after the terror. Indirectly, he helped Assad to present himself as a fighter against “terrorism.”
At the same time, the political opposition has not produced an alternative leadership that is a credible interlocutor for the international community.
As opposition factions demanded weapons and military support from their allies, similar to the NATO air intervention that helped the Libyan armed opposition undermine the Gaddafi regime, the West was terrified of a repeat of Libya’s experience as chaos was beginning to spread.
With the militant organization drawing thousands of foreign fighters to Syria and neighboring Iraq as of 2014, and carrying out bloody attacks in several countries, the focus of the international community, led by Washington, has been on supporting the factions. Kurds and their allies to confront the jihadists rather than support Assad’s opponents.
And Assad became more confident that American planes would not fly over Damascus, after former US President Barack Obama withdrew from launching punitive attacks following the killing of some 1,400 people near Damascus in the summer of 2013 as a result of an attack with sarin gas, which Damascus accused of carrying out. And it ended with an agreement between the United States and Russia to dismantle the Syrian chemical arsenal.
Pierre says Obama “was elected on the basis of a promise to withdraw from Iraq, and therefore his administration hesitated to return to the Middle East” from Syria’s doorstep.
He added that “their interests in the region were defined on a small scale and in an isolated manner, that is, the fight against terrorism, hence their interference against the Islamic State and weapons of mass destruction.”
– ‘Impossible equation’ –
On the other hand, Assad received decisive support from Iran, which intervened from the beginning of the conflict, training and recruiting auxiliary groups that fiercely defended the regime, including the Lebanese Hezbollah. So did Russia, which defended the regime in the Security Council and supported it economically and later militarily.
Russia specifically, according to Pierret, seized “a historic opportunity to regain its position as a great power by filling the strategic void left by Obama’s partial disconnection from the region.”
And after Western countries, led by Washington, each time stressed the need for Assad to step down, the attention of the international community today is on reaching a political agreement before next summer’s presidential elections.
The Syrian source says: “Today it is impossible for the Syrian regime to be acceptable to the international system, and it is also impossible for it to remain outside of it.”
“This impossible equation will keep us for many years in the stage of no choice, no solution and instability … with the slow and continuous attrition for which the Syrian people are paying the price” alone, due to the urgent need for funds and international support for the reconstruction and solution of the refugee problem.
Right now, nothing is stopping Assad from staying in place and winning a fourth presidential term, while all the activists who ever dared to take to the streets to demand the fall of the regime were killed or fled the country, and dozens of thousands more were in prisons and jails.
© 2020 AFP
