Sudan’s abandonment of Egypt in the “Ennahda” negotiations

Cairo | With gains and losses, yesterday ended the virtual meeting between the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Irrigation of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. It is true that the presence of a representative from the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not constitute a fundamental change in the negotiations, especially with the remaining sticking points, but the meeting ended with gains for Addis Ababa and a defeat for Cairo and a stalemate in the Khartoum position, so the crisis of the “Renaissance Dam” remains suspended until further notice. Meanwhile, Ethiopia seeks to prevent Egypt from taking advantage of the crisis in the Tigray region to escalate against the central government, especially in light of Eritrea’s mediation measures. This comes at a time when the Sudanese position, which Cairo called “intransigent”, as quoted by a diplomatic source in an interview with “Al-Akhbar”, makes Egypt lose a lot, after it relied on unity in the approach to negotiations between East and Sudan.

In recent weeks, Egypt made many concessions and aid to Sudan to secure its support in the dam negotiations, to the point of holding joint military exercises between the two countries in a precedent that had not happened in years. In the end, however, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry surprised the Egyptians by withdrawing from the negotiations, due to their adherence to its viewpoint based on “taking a new approach” in the negotiations, amid the refusal of Egypt and Ethiopia to do it. Egypt is currently conducting extensive military exercises with Sudan in the airspace called “Eagles of the Nile”, with the participation of Egyptian pilots and military Special Forces at the “Meroe” base, a measure that was interpreted as a message to Addis Ababa But the Khartoum position yesterday overturned this interpretation.

Egypt offered Sudan concessions and assistance to secure its support.

In detail, the African Union has been sponsoring the talks for months and Sudan wants to seek African experts on the negotiations between the three countries. Receive bribes or incentives to change their final positions. In accordance with what was agreed in previous meetings, each country chose two experts to open the way for negotiations following objections from Egypt and Ethiopia to strengthening the role of African experts, so that the dispute now between the three countries over the negotiation mechanism to get out of the crisis, not the technical details or steps to take. Cairo sees the end of the role of the African Union, unless South Africa steps in as president of the union.
Despite the expected failure of the meeting, it was surprising that the Sudanese Minister of Irrigation, Yasser Abbas, announced in a single statement that his country refused to continue the negotiations according to the previous approach, and his demand to return the issue to the African Union, This reflects the severe state of fragmentation among the participating countries after the three-hour meeting. Soon, the Egyptian presidency contacted the Military Council and the Khartoum government to discuss the matter with a low level of representation, with other close contacts, some of which were not announced. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is also expected to maintain further contacts, not exclusively with Khartoum, but with his European counterparts, in preparation to forward the entire file to the Security Council before next summer.
Furthermore, Egypt does not want the African Union to make the decision to refer the dossier to one of the Union’s special committees to continue the negotiations, as the level of Ethiopian demands has become “unacceptable”, especially after the clear declaration. Ethiopian who rejects any binding agreement, which means that the case will be referred quickly. For the Security Council, under Chapter Seven of the United Nations Charter, it will be the solution to Addis Ababa’s demand to stop filling the dam until an agreement is signed. Sources say that the continuation of the dispute between Cairo and Khartoum causes the former more concern, especially that Addis Ababa will buy time, which is “its main objective of continuously complicating the negotiations.”

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