6 months to solve or “welding tutor”! The Alankabout Spider – Lebanon News – Australia News

When the government of President Hassan Diab began to falter, before the explosion of August 4, it was heard in some Western diplomatic circles that the date for a solution in Lebanon might not have arrived yet, because the political team that holds power He is not convinced of a real reform and of keeping Lebanon away from the axes of combat in the Middle East, and that the maturation of this solution requires waiting for advances in other elements.

When asked if the fall of the Diab government and the establishment of a new government could provide the conditions for this solution, an insider was asked: “This depends on the composition and focus of the new government and the extent of its determination. to achieve the goal. “

However, he adds, “Even if the next government does not rescue, it will probably be the last government to collapse, because Lebanon will slide with it completely to the bottom, that is, where it is not possible to land anymore!”

In this case, everyone will give up and give up, because they will lose all their energy and will not be able to continue in the game of imposing conditions and demanding more. And then, the solutions will be born out of spite of them, according to the opinion of the forces involved and the interest.

Today, some people repeat this talk to wonder if it will be possible for the president-designate to form the government of the solution, or if they will put weights on his feet to drown him, the government and the French initiative, so that in practice he would have presided the last government of the collapse.

In particular, however, a question arises about the extent of US coverage of the French initiative. The warning of the Secretary of State of the United States, Mike Pompeo, about the failure of this initiative came to put points in the letters, especially since he sent his message directly from Paris, via Radio France International and Figaro.

Pompeo warned France that its efforts in Lebanon “may be lost if the issue of Hezbollah’s weaponry is not addressed immediately.” He said: “We will prevent Iran from buying Chinese tanks and Russian air defense systems, then selling weapons to Hezbollah and torpedoing Macron’s efforts.”

Some analysts were quick to say that Washington struck a blow at the French initiative, halfway through, after it discovered its laxity in dealing with Hezbollah, its weapons, its funding, and the extent of its penetration into official Lebanese institutions, and awaited his consent in the matter of the formation of the government, after the two-week period he granted. The French and the entry of the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, in the line of “liquefaction”.

They link Pompeo’s position to the sanctions that the administration of President Donald Trump began to issue, in conjunction with efforts to form the government, which began with former ministers Ali Hassan Khalil and Yusef Fenianus and will continue in the coming days with a batch of new names of various sectarian, sectarian and political affiliations.

Some believe that Washington’s interest is to quickly thwart the French initiative, to be able to enter directly into the Lebanese line, within the remaining few weeks, before it worries about the presidential elections and the administrative and political arrangements that will follow, regardless of the winner, Trump or Joe Biden.

However, political circles are reading more deeply the US position towards Paris. It is negative and positive at the same time. She believes that the French are moving under the American roof, and that the two sides are working towards one goal, which is to distance Iran’s influence from the Mediterranean and its resources, the Western fleets, the coasts of Europe and the borders of Israel. It is appropriate for the Americans for Macron to assume the role of mediator while pursuing this goal.

However, if the Americans discover that France has begun to loosen its initiative and allows the “party” to continue to exert its influence, with money and arms, then they automatically turn against the French initiative, abandoning it and maintaining it again. the file directly.

Thus, when Americans push for sanctions, the first of their kind, against those close to the “party,” they practically do not distort them, but provide them with a valuable service. The mere issuance or hint of US sanctions can help the French in the success of their initiative, because it freezes the disturbances of the powers of power and facilitates the task of the designated president.

Therefore, American and French interests are currently complementary in Lebanon. But of course, if the Americans find out that Paris will be compliant and that Hezbollah will take advantage of French support, financially and politically, to continue expanding its influence, then they will turn against the French initiative.

According to insiders, it’s impossible for Macron to risk losing American coverage. It is true that there are differences between the United States and France in the handling of the Iranian file and in the perception of “Hezbollah”: is it a Lebanese political component or a military militia? However, between the two Western allies, strong interests in Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle East, and an agreement on Lebanon and its regional role.

It is certainly not correct to say that Macron is taking advantage of the time pressing Trump to signal the settlement in Lebanon. The French know well that Washington has the strongest cards in the Middle East, before, during and after the elections.

In this climate, there are 3 cases in which the designated President will go to one of them:

1 – That the man receive the absolute support of France, and also of the United States, to form the government of the solution.

2 – To retreat, leaving the “original” Hassan Diab to continue his decline.

3- Submit to the de facto situation and accept that it is a second copy of Diab, thus assuming the task of quickly reaching the bottom of the abyss.

Adib, the French and the Americans will fight for the first case to be successful. But the opposite axis will also use all your cards. Therefore, Lebanon today is going through a critical week: going towards a real rescue or real attrition. There is probably no room for dilution after today.

Knowledgeable people estimate that it takes about 6 months to stabilize the recovery period. And if Lebanon follows the path of collapse, it will come in a much shorter period than that, especially since this will be done under the generous care of the “welding master.”