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Scientists at the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy have identified 3 possible scenarios for the continued spread of the emerging coronavirus, which causes Covid-19 disease.
According to the US network “CNN”, according to the first scenario, the first wave of the virus will continue during the spring of 2020 and will be followed by a “series of smaller and recurring waves” that will occur throughout the summer, and then the virus will start to gradually disappear “sometime in 2021.”
Analysts say “the appearance of these waves may differ geographically and may depend on the closure measures in place and how they are mitigated depending on the height of the wave peak, this scenario may require a periodic resumption of closure procedures over the next year or two. “
As for the second scenario, the first wave will roll out in the spring, followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020, and one or more waves will follow in 2021.
“This pattern is similar to the pattern observed during the 1918 flu outbreak that killed up to 50 million people worldwide,” the researchers noted.
However, the researchers said, this situation is unlikely to require re-closure measures, although new deaths continue to occur during it.
The World Health Organization has classified the coronavirus as a “global pandemic”. The number of infections worldwide has exceeded 3 million, while the number of deaths has exceeded 230,000.
