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Comment: Trail Blazers earn right to play Lakers in the first round
(3:19)
Now the Portland Trail Blazers are the no. 8-seeders from the Western Conference have secured, let the conversation shift to whether they have a realistic chance of defeating the top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. If you think they’re doing that, it’s largely for one reason: They have Damian Lillard, who’s currently lightning Disney World on fire. Of course, the Lakers have LeBron James and Anthony Davis. That, you know, not a bad superstar counter.
Below, we’ll address the questions and matchup dilemmas that color this series, which I believe to be the most intriguing of all the first-round series. You can also find the schedule and TV information for each match, which will continue to update with results for as long as the series lasts, here.
(1) Lakers vs. (8) Blazers schedule
All times Eastern
Game 1: Tuesday, August 18, 9 pm, TNT
Game 2: Thursday, Aug. 20, 9 p.m., ESPN
Game 3: Saturday, August 22, 8:30 p.m., ABC
Game 4: Monday, August 24, 9 p.m., TNT
Game 5: Wednesday, August 26 TBD, TBD
Game 6: Friday, August 28 TBD, TBD
Game 7: Sunday, August 30 TBD, TBD
1. Star Wars
While we touch on the above, if the Blazers have any chance of making this series interesting, only to win it, then Damian Lillard should be something close with productive best-player-in-world-type. At this point, that feels like a pretty good bet. Besides Lillard, CJ McCollum will have to play as a star. As a duo, in terms of pure scoring, the Blazers’ back court can keep up with LeBron and AD.
And they will have to. McCollum plays with a fractured lower back, which sounds awful, but judging by the way McCollum played in the play-in game against Memphis, he is still able to commit one-on-one offense on a consistent basis make. The Lakers do not have many defenders to throw those two, especially without Avery Bradley. LeBron will probably have to spend time with Lillard, which is a tough matchup for James, to say nothing of the energy expenditure.
There is, of course, a flip side to that coin, which is that Portland has no prayer to save LeBron individually. Gary Trent Jr., Mario Hezonja, Carmelo Anthony, forget it. This is where Trevor Ariza’s choice of bubble really hurts the Blazers – not that Ariza herself would strike an ounce of fear into James, but it would have been a one-on-one option to make LeBron at least a little bit without increasing your defense with double teams (more on this in a bit).
So while LeBron gets into this series where he wants, he has Blazers at least some size to contend with Davis, but Jusuf Nurkic and Hassan Whiteside will not keep up with him on the perimeter, where he will be operating a lot in isolation and pick-and-roll with LeBron. Zach Collins could play a pivotal role here. Like LeBron with Ariza, Collins will not make Davis shine, but it’s a ridiculous matchup to at least work him out, while keeping some sense of defensive balance intact.
Davis will have his hands full too. Nurkic ballet. He had 22 points and 21 rebounds in Portland’s playoff win over Memphis.
2. Doubles and drops
The Lakers are almost certain to double down on Lillard and at least for streaks. When he gets hot, they will almost certainly promise to take the ball out of all hands. Lillard has reached the point where you have to send multiple defenders at him the moment he crosses the halfway line if you do not want to land on the business end of a battle torch.
That opens up favorable situations for the Blazers, who have the shooters to pay the Lakers for sending two at Lillard. The math will be Carmelo Anthony, Gary Trent Jr. and of course leaving McCollum open for a lot of shots, and those guys are hitting them all on a high clip right now. Nurkic has also shown a nice feel for taking short roll passes and getting basketball, delicate delicate push-shots or going to shooters. The Blazers are a very dangerous offensive team for the simple reason that Lillard will burn you one way or another: Single cover him, and he’ll get 50; double him and open shooters make you pay.
For the Lakers, it’s a little different. They have the collective shot that the Blazers do not. The Blazers will happily live all series long with Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma and Dion Waiters launching steps. It’s not to say they’m not capable of knocking them down, but it’s a better bet they will not let LeBron go his way.
The difference is that you do not have to double LeBron 40 feet like you do Lillard. They also let him shoot as many threes as he wants. What LeBron wants to do is play the pick-and-roll game to get switches that give him the advantage against a Nurkic like Collins, if heaven forbid, Carmelo Anthony. The Blazers probably won’t give him that chance if they can help it and lower their size in the retreat way as much as possible; make him hit pull-ups.
Of course, LeBron does not deal with pull-ups. He will use the downhill track to get to the rim. But Nurkic, Collins and Whiteside at least have a chance to protect the edge. On the perimeter they are cooked. This will be a series, I think, defined in large part by the Lakers who aggressively monitor Lillard pick-and-rolls and the Blazers preserve the LeBron pick-and-rolls conservatively.
3. Carmelo conundrum
Anthony has been great in the bubble, scoring 16.5 points per game on just under 46 percent shots, including 47 percent from three. Say what you will about Melo, but portraying Portland does not make it difficult to keep herself – unless Lillard is just crazy – with Melo on the floor. He’s a spacer. A shooting. I hear his back-down post-ups and one-dribble pull-ups are an analytical nightmare, but right now they’re a BIG part of what Portland is doing offensively.
Anthony’s defense is a different story. He puts in a good effort, and whether it’s because he’s locked up or just trying a little harder, he at least gives himself a fighting chance to protect boys from the dribble. However, unless LeBron decides to take it easy on his banana boat buddy, whom we can safely assume he won’t, Melo will be relentlessly chased through switches and forced to defend in space. If it does not go well, at what point will he even become net negative with his misunderstanding?
As long as Melo makes shots, he will stay in the game, because at the end of the day, the only chance the Blazers have is to win this series in a shootout. They will not maintain the Lakers. They will have to strive for 120-plus points every game and take their chances that the Lakers will not hit any shots. Yet they may not just be a defensive red carpet. Melo must at least be competitive at that end so as not to force Terry Stotts into the difficult decision to decide whether to leave him on the floor.
