野 Sole candidate, Se-Hoon Oh and Chul-Soo Ahn’s first close match … Whoever they become

Check-in 2021.03.21 22:58 | Revision 2021.03.21 22:59

A poll on the preference for candidate unification conducted before the Seoul mayoral by-election on 7/4 showed that candidate Oh Se-hoon and National Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo are fighting a very close battle. It was also investigated that no matter which Oh or Ahn candidate is unified, Park Young-sun and the Democratic Party candidates are ahead of the candidates outside the margin of error.

KBS, MBC and SBS three terrestrial broadcasters jointly commissioned three public opinion polls (Korea Research, Korea Research, Ipsos) and surveyed the by-elections of the mayor of Seoul for two days from 20. 34.4% of respondents said that they are suitable as candidates. and 34.3% said candidate Ahn Cheol-soo is suitable. 28.2% of those surveyed said there is no suitable candidate.

When asked: ‘Who do you think is most competitive in the confrontation with Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun?’ Starting on the 22nd, the two candidates will conduct a unified public opinion poll that reflects half of ‘suitability’ and ‘competitiveness’, with both suitability and competitiveness expected to be close to each other within the margin of error. .

In particular, even if one of the two candidates becomes a single candidate, it has also been shown to outperform Park Young-seon of the Democratic Party. In the case of candidate Oh Se-hoon as the sole candidate, the number of candidates for mayor of Seoul was 30.4 percent, Park Young-seon and Oh Se-hoon 47%, with a difference of 16.6 percentage points (P). In the case of unification as Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, Park Young-seon 29.9% and Ahn Cheol-soo 45.9% showed a difference of 16%.

If the unification of the pan-opposition was not achieved, the Democratic Party Park Young-seon 27.3%, the People’s Power Oh Se-hoon 30.2% and the Popular Party 24% showed a pattern close to action within the error range. .

In the Busan mayor’s by-elections, candidate Park Hyung-joon (38.5%) showed a 10% advantage over Democratic Party candidate Kim Young-chun (26.7%). However, 32.5% of the groups were also reserved, such as ‘there is no candidate to vote’ and ‘I don’t know’.

24.8% of the respondents answered ‘residential and real estate policy’, 20.0% of the partial electoral questions of the mayor of Busan, ‘residential and real estate policy’ 20.0%, ‘promotion of the construction of a new airport on Gadeokdo Island ‘13.9% and’ LH employees suspected of land speculation ’13 .4 Appeared in the order of% and so on. The survey was followed by 9.6% of the “ response to the vaccination and quarantine of the infectious disease of the new coronavirus (Corona 19) ”, and 6.7% of the opinion that the “ alleged sale of L-City ” is an issue that will affect the election.

Meanwhile, this survey was conducted by interviewing 1006 men and women aged 18 and over in Seoul and 1000 people in Busan by telephone interview with a virtual mobile phone number (100%), and the sampling error was ± 3.1 % P at 95% confidence level The response rate was 36.6% in Seoul and 26.1% in Busan. Details can be found in the attachment and on the Central Election Survey Review Committee website.