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This week, the KOSPI index is expected to be between 2950 and 3150.
Interested in key indicators that can confirm the economic momentum
(Photo = Getty Image Bank)
This week (22-26), the direction of the national stock market is expected to focus on key indicators that can confirm the economic momentum. As the US central bank (Fed) eased concerns about the tightening, the domestic equity market is expected to show modest gains.
According to the financial investment industry on the 21st, the KOSPI index is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2950 to 3150 this week.
Previously, the US Central Bank (Fed), through the Federal Open Markets Commission (FOMC) in March, greatly eased doubts about tightening monetary policy. Given that the stock market is still far from reaching the Fed’s economic recovery target level, it is unlikely that we will worry much about the possibility of an adjustment for a considerable period of time.
However, despite the Fed’s efforts to alleviate austerity concerns, the fact that there was no policy to control the rate of increase in market interest rates did not completely resolve the possibility of expanding volatility. of the market interest rate.
Last week, the domestic stock market closed at 3,039.53 following the resumption of the rate hike on US Treasuries. The day before, investment sentiment contracted as a result of a sharp rise in prices. yields on US Treasuries and a drop in international oil prices on the international financial market.
The leading index of the New York Stock Exchange closed combined with the Fed’s decision to end bank capital deregulation. The Dow Jones 30 industrial average fell 0.5% last week. The Standard & Poor’s Index (S & P500) and the NASDAQ fell about 0.8% each.
This week, a key indicator of economic momentum in the US will be released.The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is representative and the current forecast is confirmed to be 59.5, 0.9 points higher than The last month. An improvement in this indicator can lead to strengthening confidence in the economic recovery, which can be of great help for stocks that are sensitive to the economy.
In addition, the rate of increase in basic personal consumption expenditure (PCE), which is the Fed’s inflation control indicator, is also revealed. Taking into account the past trajectory and the Fed’s forecast, it is very likely that the direction is ascending.
Dae-Joon Kim, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said: “Based on past experience, it is expected to perform more favorably on economically sensitive stocks than on economic defense stocks.”
After going through major monetary policy events, stock market interest is expected to gradually shift to earnings. The stock market may react sensitively to changes in the US market interest rate for the time being, but the decline in the valuation of US growth stocks is expected (The level of the share price versus earnings) and confidence in the economic recovery provide a decrease in stickiness in the index.
Noh-gil, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said: “It is advantageous to respond to purchases when price adjustments are made as it increases the estimates of domestic equity market performance and eases the burden of valuation.” “The setup strategy will work.” . “
Eunji Cha, Reporter Hankyung.com [email protected]
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