“The number one candidate one year before the presidential elections, cannot win the presidential elections” The myth is ‘false’

Will the candidate with the No. 1 approval rating one year before the presidential election not win the presidential election?

A year before the 20th presidential election, the so-called ‘number one candidate Jinx’ appeared again. On the 8th, Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong ranked first in the presidential election in recent polls. <매일경제> Some media reported the myth that “a year before the presidential elections, the candidate who occupies the first place cannot win the presidential elections.” Ahn Cheol-soo, the head of the National Assembly Party, also appeared on MBN Jung Woon-gap’s Intensive Analysis (Sisa Special) on the 7th and said, “I know the president has rarely been elected in accordance with the approval rate. a year before the presidential election. “” He said.

After reports that former Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol, who resigned on the 4th, had risen to the top in public opinion polls immediately after his resignation, this time, Democratic Party lawmaker Chung Cheong-rae said on his Facebook page on the 8th: “The # 1 brilliant approval rating will disappear sooner or later. He noted that” Geon, Kim Moo-sung, and Ban Ki-moon, who were once the brightest approval ratings, are also hooked. “/ Munhwa Ilbo- Realmeter, March 6-7, Presidential Candidate Preference Poll, Seok-Yeol Yoon 28.3%, Jae-Myung Lee 22.4% Nak-Yeon Lee 13.8% To get For more information, see the website of the Central Election Polls Deliberation Committee).

It is true that the ‘Spell of the number one candidate’, which says that the number one candidate with the approval rating one year before the presidential election, cannot win the presidential election, is it true?

# 1 Jinx emerged after being eliminated as a candidate Park Chan-jong in 1997 … But it was already broken 14 years ago.

In order to confirm the so-called “ No. 1 candidate Jinx ”, we reviewed the trend of public opinion polls prior to the previous presidential elections analyzed by Gallup Korea from the 15th presidential election in 1997 to the 19th presidential election in 2017. and sought the advice of opinion poll experts.

The ‘No. 1 Candidate Jinx’ was chosen after Park Chan-jong, who was No. 1 in public opinion polls a year ago at the time of the 15th presidential election in 1997, was eliminated from the race. New Korea Party. .

In 2002, in the 16th presidential election, candidate Roh Moo-hyun defeated candidate Lee In-je, the party’s leading candidate, in the primaries, and in the final election, he overthrew Grand National Party candidate Lee Hoi-chang. ‘theory’ and chosen.

However, after the 2007 presidential elections, the spell lost steam. A year before the presidential elections, candidate Lee Myung-bak greatly outperformed other party candidates, including GNP candidate Park Geun-hye, as well as Chung Dong-young (United Democratic Party). Even in the 2012 presidential election, candidate Park Geun-hye played a three-way showdown with candidate Jae-in Moon and Chul-Soo Ahn, but she hardly ever missed first place in the polls from a year ago.

The 19 presidential elections in 2017, which were postponed until May due to Park Geun-hye’s impeachment, also had several variables, but candidate Moon Jae-in nearly ranked first in polls since early 2016.

Around May 2016, a year before the presidential election, candidate Ahn Chul-soo once ranked first in public opinion polls, but it was temporary, and during the same period, candidate Moon Jae-in appeared. first in other surveys. Rather, starting in June of that year, former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon rose to the top of the approval rating for a time, but after the ‘impeachment candle’, the approval rating fell and finally stopped working in early February 2017.. (Gallup Korea Self Poll, Next Political Leader Preference, May 10-12, 2016, Ahn Chul-soo 20%, Moon Jae-in 18% / Real Meter-MBN, May 9-13, Moon Jae-in 25.7%, Ahn Chul-soo 17.5%, detailed) For more information, see the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee.)

Experts “No. 1 Jinx, no scientific basis”

Poll experts believe that ‘number one candidate Jinx’ has been broken since the 2007 presidential election. More than 10 years have passed.

Yoon Hee-woong, director of the Opinion Live Public Opinion Analysis Center, said on the 8th: “There was a myth that the president should not be the first candidate in the approval rating a year before the presidential election, but already was broken. after the 2007 presidential election. “Except for the 2002 presidential election, when the presidential election was chosen, the person included in the leading group was finally chosen, even if it was not first place a year before the presidential election “.

Director Yoon pointed out that “Jinx No. 1 itself is an unscientific analysis,” he said. “Rather, a newcomer who did not enter the top ranks a year before the presidential election is difficult to win because there is not enough time to report.” the public.”

Eom Kyung-young, director of the Institute of Era and Spirituality, said: “Excluding Park Chan-jong in 1997 and Lee In-je in 2002, if you limit yourself to the same political party, the number 1 in the poll almost remained at a year ago. Even at the time of the 2017 presidential election, candidate Chul-soo Ahn took the lead until the end of 2015. After the withdrawal, the approval rating was focused on candidate Moon Jae-in, and on the general election a year before the presidential election, thanks to the Nationalist Party sensation, candidate Ahn Chul-soo held first place for a while, but since then, Moon has held first place. “

However, the assessment of former attorney general Yoon Seok-yeol’s ranking in the polls immediately after his retirement was mixed.

“Jinx No. 1 is a myth that suits new political figures like Yoon Suk-yeol instead of Lee Jae-myeong,” Governor Lee Jae-myeong said. He can be seen as a political rookie, “he said.

On the other hand, the director of the center, Hee-woong Yoon, said: “There is no one who has obtained a significant approval rating among the candidates for the pan-opposition focused on the power of the people, and there is not much time for a new broker. to go up. There is a possibility of this happening. “

It does not coincide with the results of the recent presidential elections and has no scientific basis.

The myth that “the candidate with the highest approval rating a year before the presidential elections cannot win the presidential elections” originated in the case of two presidential elections in 1997 and 2002. As such, it means that the results of Public opinion polls conducted with multiple presidential candidates competing for whom it is unclear whether they will run for the presidential election will be difficult to match the actual results of the presidential election a year later.

However, considering the results of the last three presidential elections since the 2007 presidential elections, this myth does not hold up. I was only generalizing a few cases in the past, and there was no scientific basis to support the myth, so it was decided as “false.”

[근거자료]

1. Tendency of support of candidates for past Gallup Korea presidential elections (1987-2012) 2012.10.15
https://www.gallup.co.kr/gallupdb/reportContent.asp?seqNo=346

2. Gallup Korea Daily Opinion No. 258 (May 7-8, 2017) – Presidential Candidate Map, Expected Voting Rate, and Political Perception (May 5, 2017)
https://www.gallup.co.kr/gallupdb/reportContent.asp?seqNo=830