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The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences analyzed that China’s population peaked at 1.442 million in 2029, and then continued to grow negatively from 2030, declining to 1.34 billion in 2050 and 1.24 billion in 2065, until 1996 size. [출처:웨이보]
#One. “What are you trying to marry? It’s a lot of money and it’s difficult …” When I asked Chen, 36, a Chinese office worker working for a foreign company in her thirties, the reply was received. . The woman he meets has the same idea. I am satisfied with my current life, but I don’t know if I need to get married because it is unreasonable. He also said it would be nice to have children, but in Beijing, even if the two of them earned it, the cost would be tight. When asked about the problem of declining fertility rates in China, he replied, “I don’t want to get married, but what do you think of the problem of children?”
1.3 million births last year, the lowest in 59 years
Population decline from 2030 to take a turn
“The ambush of Chinese dreams is a non-American population”
Second, after 6 years of acceptance, third acceptance discussion.
60% agree … Even the “just getting rich” objection
# 2. Jin (金, 33), an office worker in Beijing, said: “My parents in my hometown (Heilongjiang province) do not emphasize the problems of marriage as before. I know that my goal and the social atmosphere has changed. He said, “I will get married when the time comes,” but said, “If I think childbirth is possible too, I’ll make a plan.”
In China, a birth control policy was implemented that allowed only one child to be born in 2015. Because of this, the problem was the ‘son of darkness’ (Heifu) who secretly gave birth to one more child in the idea of a child’s preference. In this type of birth control, China, a country with a population of more than 1.4 billion people, the problem of population decline has emerged as a national problem due to the avoidance of marriage and childbirth.
Chai Fang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Beijing Daily in December last year: “The low birth rate and population decline in China are showing an irreversible trend.” “The next five years, demographic factors are seems like a serious challenge,” he warned. The public comments by the deputy head of the Chinese think tank were interpreted as a current of government and provoked a debate.
Subsequently, the report from the China Public Security Bureau (the Police Agency) confirmed the severity with specific statistics. According to published data, as of December 31 last year, the total number of newborns registered with the Chinese public security was 1,035,000. The number of children born in 2019 decreased by 1.75 million (14.9%) compared to 11.79 million. It has experienced the largest decline since the last decade. This year, when the impact of Corona 19 is reflected, the number of newborns is expected to decline further, so the number of births next year is expected to drop below 10 million for the first time.
The Chinese population is expected to continue to decline from 2030
The problem is that this is not a temporary trend. China’s population in 2020 will be the smallest in 59 years since the establishment of New China, and at the same time, it may be the largest in hundreds of years to come. The prediction of the Academy of Social Sciences is as follows. China’s population peaked at 1.44 billion in 2029 and then declined after 2030. The population growth rate will gradually decrease, decreasing to 1.364 million in 2050 and 1.248 million in 2065, which will be the same as the level of 1996 population.
This phenomenon varies in speed from region to region, and fertility rates drop even further in cities. In Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, with a population of 6.5 million, the fertility rate fell by 32.6% compared to last year, increasing by only 3.7420. In Hefei, Anhui province, where Chinese semiconductor and video integrated circuit companies are numerous, the number of births decreased by 22,433 (-23%) in one year. Guangzhou announced that it had fallen 9%, but local media predicted that it would at least double. The reason is that the costs of education are much higher than in other regions. The National Statistics Office will release accurate census statistics in April. Shanghai has the lowest fertility rate among major Chinese cities (19) over the past decade, at 0.76% (7.6 per 1,000 inhabitants), followed by Beijing at 0.85%.
On the contrary, the problem of the elderly is getting worse. China will also become an aging society next year, with a population aged 65 and over reaching 14% of the total population, or 180 million. The difference is that when the United States, Japan and Korea became an aging society, the national per capita income exceeded $ 24,000, while China was only $ 10,000. Following this trend, China is expected to reach a very aging society in 2033 (20% of people aged 65 and over) and 1 in 3 citizens (29.5%) of people aged 65 and over to 2050. 2049 marks the centenary of the establishment of New China. President Xi Jinping has a Chinese dream of building a “socialist modernization powerhouse” until the centenary of the founding of the country. The population problem has turned into an ambush.
Finally, the third birth permit problem emerged as a “hot potato” in China. The discussion began in earnest six years after the second birth was freely allowed. Amid mixed pros and cons, Huang Si-hwa, CEO of Guangdong Tourism Holdings Group, insisted: “We must move in the direction of reducing the cost of childcare and eliminating the policy of punishment for childbirth of three or more. more children. ” It is necessary to develop a universal child care system and propose measures to reduce the cost of childbirth, childcare and education. Currently, there are few national child care facilities below kindergarten in China. On the other hand, there are also opinions that oppose social networks. “Fetal liberalization is only possible for wealthy people, so it does not contribute to social equity.” The argument that “the government makes more efforts to encourage second children is gaining support.”
Investigation of third birth allowance
The Hengda Group Research Institute of China announced on 20 last month that a survey of 20,000 people showed that 60% of respondents supported “allowing a third birth.” The opposition was 24% and the neutral was 16%. “There is a lot of controversy about the liberalization of the third birth in all walks of life,” said Lian Jingping, director of the Hengda Institute for Economic Research. I suggested to the government what to do, “he said. A full discussion is expected to take place at both meetings in China, which will open on 4-5 this month.
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