The findings POLITICO / Morning Consult help explain why strategists from both parties said in interviews that they did not see him as a factor in the race, at least not yet. West has successfully submitted paperwork as a third-party candidate in less than a dozen states and Republicans in warring states such as Wisconsin and Ohio have organized to get him on the ballot.
Continuation of suspicion of the rapper’s attempt is the fact that some of the organizers are Trump supporters and Republican strategists with at least loose connections to the president’s re-election attempt. They include Lane Ruhland, a former attorney general for the Wisconsin Republican Party who also represented the Trump re-election campaign and dismissed West’s nominating papers. Gregg Keller, a veteran GOP operative who once served as executive director of the American Conservative Union, has led the Western campaign.
But a number of Democratic strategists said the framing of West – a Black man and popular rap artist – as an inherently appealing presidential candidate for Black voters reveals a fundamental misconception of both Western and Black voters. While African-Americans are the most loyal voting block of Democrats, West is often supports GOP call points about problems such as abortion and the legacy of slavery. His most notable political performance of the past three years has been in tandem with Trump, whose rating for rejection stands at 79 percent with Black voters.
“The main line is that Kanye West is an entertainer. That is not to say he cannot run in election politics, but his candidacy is more of a distraction, “said Derrick Clay, an Ohio-based strategist and chairman of the state Legislative Black Caucus Foundation. Clay said GOP’s call Kanye is a reflection of her fear of the millennial and suburban mood, two groups that interview in favor of Biden.
“I think that strategy will fall back on them,” he continued.
West is most popular among Gen Zers, a majority of whom are eligible to vote in November. Its favorable ratings with the demographics are at 31 percent. 6 percent, however, said they would vote for him.
Moreover, West’s lack of a clear policy platform beyond his aversion to Democratic politics does not add much to his small network of supporters. His campaign page is a single page with a to-do list of goals the rapper has for his presidency, including reducing national debt and reforming the criminal justice system. The 10 points are accompanied by Bible verses. He has kept one campaign rally since announcing his candidacy, urging his wife, Kim Kardashian West, to speak publicly about his mental health problems.
It remains unclear whether West on the ballot will appear in key states. He narrowly met the signature requirement to get to the polls in Ohio, while in Wisconsin he missed the deadline for qualifying by just minutes. Election officials in both states sort through his paperwork to determine whether he will be allowed to run for president.
West missed the deadline to run as a third-party candidate in 10 states, but said he would rely on registered ballots to make him competitive in states where his name is not on the ballot.
Trump has aggressively joined forces with black voters, hoping to cut back on Biden’s margin. His campaign carried out advertisements following the persecution of African-Americans and highlighted Biden’s leading role in passing on the 1984 criminal record, which resulted in the widespread imprisonment of Black people. Before the outbreak of coronavirus, the reelection campaign announced plans to open storefronts in stock with Trump campaign tower in urban areas.
Trump received just 8 percent of the Black vote in 2016, but his advisers argue that if he could get in double digits it could change the outcome of a close race. However, those efforts could be complicated by Biden’s decision to tap Kamala Harris as his running mate.
Still, Democratic operatives say they pay close attention to West.
“It is clear that Republicans and Trump think they will benefit from Kanye West on the ballot. To counter his forthcoming candidacy, we must engage young Black voters early and consistently on the issues that matter most to them and through the voices of people who understand their cravings and concerns, “said Justin Myers, CEO of For Our Future, a union-funded super PAC focused on organizing.
Other Democratic operatives see Republicans’ efforts to help West as not only futile but also a little forgettable, given its fragile mental state.
“I think Kanye, unfortunately, is at the whim of people who have no interest in his, his daughter’s, his children’s interests with their policies,” said Quentin James, executive director of The Collective PAC. ‘That helps, I think, is just sad. And I think they take advantage of his mental health situation to be very honest. ”
The Trump campaign said it had nothing to do with West’s campaign.
“We have no knowledge of what Kanye West is doing or who is doing it for him,” said Tim Murtaugh, a spokesman for the Trump campaign.
James also added that he did not underestimate the threat of a third-party challenger that could sway Democratic votes.
“I think this is a serious moment, in the sense that Kanye West could dismiss some of those voters who feel like Donald Trump or Joe Biden is not the answer for them,” James said. “I think people should know if you do not support Joe Biden or if you vote for Kanye West, you vote for Donald Trump. A vote for Kanye West is a vote for Donald Trump. ”
Morning Consult is a global data information company, providing insights into what people think in real time by researching tens of thousands every day around the world.
More details about the interview and its methodology can be found in these two documents: Toplines | Crosstabs
