CLEVELAND, Ohio – When former Republican Gov. John Kasich was driven as an idea for speaker at the Democratic National Convention, the Ohio political circuit met the choice with some skepticism.
Ohioans largely grumbled at the thought of Kasich – a politician with a conservative track record – who took a talking lock on what is to be the most important event that Democrats marked before the attack in the final weeks of the campaign.
Kasich’s candid opposition to Republican President Donald Trump is seen as treacherous within the Ohio Republican Party. But Democrats largely recall Kasich’s two-term rule, which was marked by conservative policies, including renewed abortion access in the state and unsuccessfully trying to weaken the collective treatment rights of public employees.
Just about everyone noticed his disinterest in being a governor during his last two years in office, when he largely shifted the focus to being a national figure – a not-so-secret wish of his given his presidency in 2016 .
Ohioans are sure to have confirmed opinions about Kasich. He served eight years and was nakedly ambitious. That it’s not surprising why his selection was crowned with strangeness, especially when the state already has a popular statewide elected Democrat with broad appeal in sen. Sherrod Brown.
But Kasich is now a national figure, the de facto leader of the GOP’s diaspora who publicly criticizes Trump – the “Never Trumpers” – with regular appearances as a speaking head on CNN.
Would he then, in theory, be enough of a hug for former Vice President Joe Biden to appeal to the typical Republican suburbs seeking permission to break rank and vote Democrat like this only once? used to be?
Kasich declined to speak to cleveland.com. Strategists, experts and politicians were mixed about what Kasich would actually bring to the DNC leadership.
Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said he liked the choice. Unlike some, Kasich has been anti-Trump from the beginning, Reid said, showing credibility to every pitch he makes against Trump through a Republican lens.
“He’s not there and he said, ‘I’m a Democrat,’ ‘Reid said. “He says there, ‘Trump is bad for the Republican Party. I want him to lose and I’m going to vote for Joe Biden to get rid of him. ‘”
Reid, like others interviewed on cleveland.com, thought that Kasich’s main message would focus on the need for a return to functioning government. That’s a linchpin of Kasich’s political profile over the last three decades. As chairman of the U.S. House Budget Committee, Kasich was one of the negotiators for the balanced budget in 1997, a major achievement given partisanship in Congress.
Ohioans have heard that countless times. But TJ Rooney, former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said that is not the case for non-Buckeyes.
“To the average person with whom he will speak at the convention, they are not driven from him,” Rooney said. ‘And they want things to happen. He imagines that in government if you work together good things will happen. That’s good. That’s fresh. That’s new. ”
Al Cárdenas, former president of the Florida Republican Party and a vocal Trump critic, also said that Kasich’s performance at the DNC has the opportunity to provide a unique perspective in a race dominated by Biden and Trump.
“Every time you get to your party’s nominee, that’s a big deal,” Cardenas said. ‘It also opens the door for others to follow them. More importantly, you try your best when you are the Joe Biden campaign to add half a point here as a point. ”
As a Republican in Florida, Cárdenas is acquainted with a Republican governor who breaks away from his party at one of the largest political stages. In 2012, the former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist spoke at the Democratic National Convention in favor of President Barack Obama.
Cárdenas said he does not know whether the appearance of Cristo Obama has helped carry Florida by less than a percentage point. But it apparently did not hurt, he said.
“Can (Kasich) move this cycle a few points into an unaffected Republican base? Yes. Will he move 10% or 5% of the Republican vote? No. That is not a logical goal, “said Cárdenas. “Half a percent like 1% or 2% is enormous in a state that normally decides its presidential election by a point or two.”
Crist, now a Democratic congressman, said he thinks he helped Obama’s Florida re-election campaign, even if only a little. But in close elections, any support is important.
“I think that will have a profound impact on the race, even if it’s just around the margins,” Crist said. ‘The margins are business. They made in 2016 and I’m sure they will business in 2020. ”
FIL – In this February 6, 2016, file photo, Ohio government, John Kasich, left, and Donald Trump, right, speak to reporters after Republican primary debate in Manchester, NH Since Trump’s election, Kasich has been the most outspoken Republican critic of Trump. (AP photo / Matt Rourke, file)AP
Kasich’s potential to help along the margins of the race was a consistent theme among those who spoke with cleveland.com. No one thought Kasich would lead to a massive exodus of voters from Trump to Biden, but elections are won by convincing enough voters, not all.
Take Michigan, where Trump defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by less than 11,000 votes.
Michael Traugott, professor of political science at the University of Michigan, said the inclusion of Kasich could help convince enough voters, especially in the suburbs.
“This is a way for Biden, in fact, to attack one flank of Trump without having to do it personally,” Traugott said. “He can give Kasich the message about the shortcomings of the Trump administration. I think that would appeal not only to independence but also Republicans. “
Wisconsin is a similar case. Trump cut Clinton in 2016 by less than 23,000 votes.
“There seems to be this appeal among Wisconsinites to political actors who are independent thinkers,” said Kathy Cramer, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “His relative conservatism and, however, lack of support for President Trump are likely to resonate with people who consider themselves conservative and are not the state of the Republican Party today.”
Pennsylvania, the third of the “Big Three” that if Biden were to hold the presidency from him in 2016, was also decided in favor of Trump by a slim margin of 44,000 votes. Rooney, the former chairman of the Democratic Party, said Kasich foresaw conservative-leaning appeal of Biden’s candidacy in places where Democrats are struggling.
“Take Erie, Lucerne and Northampton counties,” Rooney said. ‘These are the three counties that Hillary lost that Trump fired four years before Obama. John Kasich could be elected to any office in any of the three provinces he ever sought. ‘
Yet there was a healthy amount of skepticism about what, if anything, effect that Kasich’s speaking slot had on voters.
Ben Toll, professor of political science at Wilkes University in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Said he found it difficult to see Kasich’s speech being an important factor in the election. The race is already well defined and Kasich will take the stage the same night as Vermont sen. Bernie Sanders and former first lady Michelle Obama, both very popular figures with dedicated sequels. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a rising star in the party, will also speak Monday night.
“I see the conventions in any case have no lasting effect,” Toll said. ‘Let alone if you bring someone who is from outside. I do not see the impact lasting. ”
John Harris, a non-partisan political analyst from North Carolina, said he was a big fan of Kasich’s, but questioned whether people themselves would be interested in what Kasich has to say.
“It seems to me that this is a time in the history of our country where the John Kasichs are needed, but the least chance they will be heard,” Harris said. “This is due to the partisan separation and the separation is being pushed by party leaders. There is no interest in compromise. There is a partisan interest in running only over the other party. ”
Chuck Coughlin, a longtime Republican strategist in Arizona, said the Kasich brand could potentially appeal to voters in Arizona. The Southwestern state has considered a different perspective on the federal government because of its confidence, so a “good governance” message resonates. The state is also notable for politicians like former Sens. John McCain and Jeff Flake, both Republicans who openly oppose Trump.
But Coughlin questioned whether the DNC was the right place for the Biden campaign to use Kasich’s message. Republicans will work overtime to paint the speeches as radical.
“I think everyone says it’s the most progressive ticket in the Democratic Party,” Coughlin said. “That’s going to be the Republican story about these guys.”
However, Coughlin thought Kasich was taking a big gamble by joining the list of speakers.
“Politics is a team sport,” he said. ‘You may not like the team and some of the players, but when you start arguing for the other team, you’re a man without a country. That is a very delicate walk to make. ”
Read more policy coverage:
A new campaign aims to remove the regulator from Ohio’s top utilities. Who is Sam Randazzo and how is he related to FirstEnergy?
Secretary of State of Ohio Frank LaRose: No additional ballot box for vacancies for November
Ohio politicians respond to Joe Biden choosing Kamala Harris as his running mate
Never do Trump groups look to Ohio for Joe Biden
