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It has become a hot topic on the internet that there is a country that predicted the course of Typhoon No. 14 in the south by a supercomputer about a week ago.
What country is? I also asked the Meteorological Agency why it was even possible to predict.
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Typhoon No. 14 in U (from the Meteorological Agency website)
“I can’t get on the jet stream and go south between high and low pressures.”
“I was surprised to have roughly predicted this course in some country.”
“At first, I didn’t think it was right.”
“There was this line on the planned route, it is amazing prediction accuracy.”
In the comment section of the news site, there were a number of voices about the fact that Typhoon No. 14 did not land in Japan and followed a course that took a U-turn near the Izu Islands. The typhoon became a tropical low pressure near Ogasawara on October 12, 2020.
As for the course, around October 5, 2020, the course provided by the spa cons of each country was entered on the weather map in an extensive television program. Most of them headed northeast along the Pacific coast of Japan, but there were also courses that left Japan with a steep clockwise curve to the south. It seems that there was a program that spoke of this as impossible.
The meteorological advisory office of the Meteorological Agency explained to J-CAST News on the 12th about the reason why Typhoon No. 14 made a 180 degree turn.
“The typhoon could not get into the air because the jet air flow due to the west wind was flowing towards the north of Japan. The high pressure about 5000 meters on the Pacific Ocean side was divided into east and west, and the typhoon It was on the edge of the east high pressure. First, it rotates clockwise, a low pressure is created between the high pressure in the west and the low pressure blows counterclockwise, so that a wind from the North blows between high pressure and low pressure in the east. The typhoon went south with the wind. “
Some people on the internet are concerned that this missing typhoon will develop in the Pacific Ocean and return to Japan, but it looks like it won’t turn into a typhoon until now.
In the past, Typhoon No. 6 that occurred in 2011 also made a 180 degree turn.
I assumed the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasts, and also excellent aspects such as forecasting up to 10 days in advance
The typhoon’s reversal was predicted by Spacon at the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF), which is based in the UK.
ECMWF has become a member of European countries and, according to an October 7 article in the Sankei Shimbun, meteorology has developed in Europe because the weather affected the war situation during the First World War.
The Meteorological Agency’s Asia-Pacific Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center told the interview about the ECMWF, which is expected until the 12th and 10th.
“Japan only predicts up to 5 days in advance, so we don’t calculate to the point of making a U-turn, and in simulating the numerical forecast model based on the initial data, we decided to go northeast on the coast of Pacific. In the model, there are certainly differences due to differences in algorithms and computers, and I think there are some areas where Japan is losing. “
The German meteorological agency also predicted a U-turn from October 5.
However, as of day 7, ECMWF temporarily changed its prediction that the typhoon would move northeast.
“There are differences in each country, and there are times when it hits and times when it hits. It would be nice if there were always hits, but if you look at it throughout the year, I don’t think Japan is very different from Europe. I also mean the models for each country and I forecast up to 5 days in advance, so I think the forecast is not inferior ”.
(Hiroyuki Noguchi, J-CAST News Editorial Department)
