The US unemployment insurance claim decreased, reflected a new seasonal adjustment, increased in California, etc.



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Last week’s U.S. unemployment insurance statistics showed mixed and weak labor market conditions. The Department of Labor has changed its method of seasonal adjustment in response to the distortion of statistics following the novel coronavirus pandemic.

Main point

  • New Unemployment Insurance Claims (Week Ending Aug 29) 881,000 Under Normal State Programs
    • The median forecast of economists compiled by Bloomberg is 950,000
    • The previous week it was 1.01 million. Cannot make a direct comparison because the seasonal adjustment method has been changed
  • According to the state program, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment insurance decreased by approximately 765,000 before the end of the 22nd week to 13.1 million.
    • It may reflect unemployed as a regular program has expired and you have moved to another extension program.
Unadjusted U.S. Unemployment Claims Increased from the Prior Week, But Still Below 1 Million

The number of new applications before seasonal adjustment increased by 7,591 to 833,352, giving a different impression on the labor market. The main cause is the increase in California. New unemployment insurance claims under the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program increased by approximately 152,000 to 759,000. California accounted for most of the increase. The PUA also applies to workers who are not covered by the regular unemployment insurance provided by each state, such as the self-employed and concert workers who do one-off jobs.

While the unemployment data suggests a modest improvement in the labor market, it also shows that the new coronavirus is still below its pre-pandemic level. Just two days ago, United Airlines Holdings and Ford Motor announced the layoffs, and news of large-scale downsizing of hundreds of thousands has continued in recent weeks.

The total number of state and regular PUA programs was 29.2 million in the week ending the 15th, an increase of approximately 2 million from the previous week.

“It’s very difficult to come to a conclusive conclusion about what the data for a particular week means,” said Joshua Shapiro, Maria Fiorini Ramirez’s chief US economist. Have received unemployment insurance ”.

See the table for detailed statistics.

Original title:Unemployment claims in the United States paint a mixed picture with changes in settings (抜 粋)

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