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Media opinion polls have revealed a series of harsh results in which Suga’s Cabinet approval rating is below the disapproval rating. In such circumstances, Sankei Shimbun and FNN (Fuji News Network) conducted a joint poll from January 23-24, 2021, and the approval rating exceeded 50%.
The Sankei / FNN investigation was suspended in June 2008 due to the discovery of fraudulent information from fictitious investigation results, but was resumed in January 2009. This is the first time that Suga’s Cabinet approval rating has been investigated and announced. . Why is the Sankei / FNN so high?
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Immediately after the inauguration of Suga’s Cabinet, it became a hot topic in each newspaper’s opinion polls that the approval rating was different (photo taken in September 2008).
Sankei / FNN 52.3%, Asahi 33%, daily 33%
Problems related to the Sankei / FNN survey became apparent in June 2008. The contractor was cheating by entering fictitious findings that it did not actually call. The fraud was found in a total of 14 surveys from May 19 to May 2008, with both companies canceling all broadcasts based on the survey results. The Sankei will conduct the survey on January 16, 2009, after taking steps to prevent a recurrence, such as employees witnessing the survey and another surveyor matching and confirming the interaction between the surveyor and respondent. It was revealed that it would resume. Due to this background, this is the first time Sankei / FNN has investigated and announced Suga’s Cabinet approval rating.
On top of that, the Cabinet approval rating reported in the Sankei Shimbun on January 25 was 52.3% and the disapproval rate was 45.0%. When asked “Do you want to evaluate the government’s measures against the new coronavirus?”, 33.6% answered “evaluate” and 65.6% answered “do not evaluate”.
On the other hand, according to the opinion poll conducted by Asahi Shimbun from January 23-24, which is the same period as the Sankei, the Cabinet approval rating was 33%, 6 points less than the previous poll in December. 2008, and the disapproval rating was 10 points, high at 45%. on the other hand,
“Do you appreciate the government’s response to the new coronavirus?”
When asked, “evaluate” was 8 points lower than the previous time at 25%, and “don’t evaluate” was 7 points higher at 63%.
A week before that, a survey by Mainichi Shimbun and the Center for Social Research on January 16 showed similar results. The Cabinet approval rate is 33%, 7 points less than the previous survey in December 2008. The disapproval rate was 57%, 8 points more. The government’s measures against the new crown were to “evaluate” 15% and “not evaluate” 66%.
Sankei / FNN said: “If the answer is not clear, ask again, ‘If there is something.’
The government’s assessment of the corona measures is low in all three polls, but the approval rating is significantly higher in the Sankei / FNN poll. The difference in the survey method seems to be behind this.
The Sankei will be released on January 25 and the survey method will be explained.
“We made calls using the RDD (Random Digit Dialing) method, which randomly generates phone numbers according to the gender and age structure of each survey area, and we conducted a survey until we got the calculated number of responses. The proportion It was “landline 4: mobile phone 6.” If the answer was not clear, I asked again “if there was something” and got the answer. The survey’s target was 1104 men and women over 18 years of age nationwide ” .
Explain, Asahi also uses the RDD method and researchers are calling landlines and mobiles.
“Fixed was 632 out of 1,132 households that had voters (response rate 56%), and mobile phones were 1,015 out of 2026 (50%) that carried voters, for a total of 1,647 valid responses.”
It is said, every day
“The survey combined the method of using the short mail feature on cell phones and the method of having people automatically answer voice questions on landlines, and got 711 cell phones and 368 valid responses.”
Explain.
In other words, out of the three surveys, only the Sankei took the procedure of “if the answer was not clear, I asked again, ‘if anything’ and got the answer.” This is also mentioned in the news program “FNN Live News days” broadcast by Fuji TV on the morning of January 25, using the method called “over-listening”.
While the presenter asked why the approval rating exceeded 50% despite the severe evaluation of Suga’s administration’s crown measures, the station desk
“In this survey, we asked people whose answers were unclear, ‘What if something?’, And it’s easy to get high numbers of both support and disapproval.”
It is answered. Furthermore, the board said that 43% of Suga’s Cabinet supporters did not “evaluate” the measures against the crown.
“I can’t assess it, but the number of infected people is decreasing on the weekends, and you can see that there are some people who responded that they would support the Suga administration with expectations for the future.”
I explained.
When “listening repeatedly”, “the difference between support and disapproval becomes clear, and the rate of support tends to increase.”
The problems surrounding this “excessive listening” have been pointed out for some time. For example, in the opinion poll immediately after the inauguration of the Suga Cabinet in September 2008, the Cabinet approval rating was 65% for Asahi and 64% for every day, while the Nikkei newspaper was 74 %, which is 8-10 points higher. In the Nikkei online commentary article from September 19, according to the Nikkei newspaper poll,
“If it’s not clear whether the answer is supportive or disapproving, ask again, ‘Which one is closer to your feelings?'”
After explaining that, he notes that the approval rating tends to be higher due to “excessive listening.”
“In this survey, 66% of respondents answered” support “to the first question of the Nikkei newspaper, which was on the same level as the Asahi Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun. A number that reflects the” weak support “that was unearthed twice. This method has a clear difference between support and disapproval, and it tends to increase the support rate. “
(Hiroshi Kudo, J-CAST News Editorial Department)
