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[22 de Tokio Reuters]- The Nikkei average fell sharply on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on the 22nd, closing at 29,174.15 yen, a decrease of 617.90 yen from the previous business day. We ask market participants for their opinions.
● TOPIX is a reactionary reaction after the ninth consecutive growth, and the movement of the value advantage in US equities has run its course.
In response to the Bank of Japan’s decision to buy exchange-traded funds (ETFs) only at the TOPIX-linked rate, Fast Retailing is being sold, which has a high index contribution to the Nikkei 225. However, considering that Stock prices that are not part of the Nikkei average, such as Keyence and Nidec, have also fallen dramatically, it can be seen that today’s drop is the result of multiple selling factors. Given that TOPIX continued to grow from the 9th to the previous weekend, the reactionary part may be large.
In the US stock market this past weekend, the Nasdaq rallied, while the Dow continued to slide, and it looked like the recent move to dominate value stocks had come to an end. With the establishment of the $ 1.9 trillion additional economic measures, the materials have been depleted once, and there is a growing view that materials larger than the additional economic measures will not appear for the time being. The outlook for the economy has not changed significantly, but development is likely to continue as trends in US long-term interest rates are observed.
The Renesas Electronics factory fire is only a negative factor for the share price, but it is not a problem of demand but of supply, so it is not a material that is disgusting in the medium or long term. However, there are concerns about delivery delays and it is inevitable that the impact will spread to automakers. We are wary of risks, such as missed opportunities, so we would like to keep an eye on future developments.
● Watch out for US long-term interest rates, and the bad news overlaps with the self-adjusting phase.
The recent sharp decline in the Nikkei Stock Average is due in large part to uncertainty about US long-term interest rate trends.
Last weekend, the Federal Reserve announced that it would end its temporary easing of the supplemental leverage ratio (SLR), a capital adequacy requirement for major banks, in late March as planned. It appears to have come as a surprise to the market as many market participants expected the deregulation of SLR to spread.
The Nikkei stock average has risen by about 2,000 yen in 10 business days from March 5 to March 18, and the recent move is also a big aspect of the autonomous adjustment. In that situation, the uncertainty about long-term interest rates of USA and Renesas Electronics6723.TBad materials, like a factory fire in Japan, have overlapped. In the TSE 33 industries, the peak rates of increase and decrease are economy-sensitive stocks and there is no sense of market direction. Amid strong uncertainty ahead, for-profit sales are ahead of stocks in the high price range.
The review of purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) announced at the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision meeting on the 19th was assimilated that day, and the worst today is the sense of caution about long-term interest rates. United States term. With the outlook uncertain, volatility will continue to increase to some extent.
Now, in the off-season, when the financial market shifts to the corporate performance market, adjustments are easy to make. However, with the US fiscal stimulus and the continued orientation of monetary easing by the central banks of each country, the scenario of economic recovery and improvement in business performance has not changed. In the future, we hope to buy a bargain when Japanese stocks fall.
● Is it a day setting for a while?
Today’s reduction includes continued confusion due to the BOJ inspection, the end of the US SLR deregulation, and Renesas Electronics.6723.TThe background is the overlap of bad news like a factory fire in the United States, but the root is the rise in long-term interest rates in the United States, and the daily adjustment is expected to continue for a while.
The US Biden administration has decided on $ 1.9 trillion in economic measures, and I think the presence of former President Trump is a major factor in this. If employment deteriorates here, it may not be the nostalgic mood for the Trump era, and President Biden wants to avoid it. On the other hand, if this situation continues, there is concern about the pain that the bursting of the bubble will cause in the future, so the maneuver to stop the asset bubble will be hidden by allowing the rise in long-term interest rates .
In that case, stocks that have been bought at a high price, like the big IT stocks that have led the US stock market, are tough. The scenario of rising stock prices with growing stocks will collapse. Japanese stocks have been following the US stock market so far, and if this scenario cannot be drawn and US stocks are sluggish going forward, it will be difficult to follow the uptrend.
Additionally, a fire at the Renesas factory is likely to be a factor in the stock price adjustments. Since semiconductors are the key to fundamentals, it will accelerate the supply shortage, which is clearly a negative factor for stock prices.
However, there is no change in the state of surplus money, which has been a factor in the rise in share prices. Therefore, it will not collapse significantly in the near future. The point of this adjustment is not the price range but the daily pattern and, for the moment, the development is expected to conflict.
