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It is likely to continue until winter, when the Laninha phenomenon appears to have occurred.
On the 10th, the Meteorological Agency published the Ernino Vigilance Bulletin. It shows the characteristics of the La Niña phenomenon, such as that the temperature of the sea surface water in the Ernino monitoring area becomes lower than the standard value, and the La Niña phenomenon is thought to have occurred. The La Niña phenomenon is very likely to continue until next winter.
Living condition in August
The difference with the standard value of the sea surface water temperature in the Ernino monitoring area in August was -0.6 ° C, which was lower than the standard value. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region were lower than normal from the center to the east and higher than normal in the west. The water temperature at the ocean surface was lower than normal from the central part to the eastern part, and higher than normal in the western part. Convection activity near the date line in the equatorial Pacific region was less active than normal, and the east wind (trade wind) in the lower central atmosphere was slightly stronger than normal.
Such oceanic and atmospheric conditions are characteristic of the Laninha phenomenon, and the Laninha phenomenon is believed to have occurred.
Prospect of the future
Cold water on the ocean surface found in the central part of the equatorial Pacific region is believed to move eastward in the future, and the sea surface temperature in the eastern part will remain lower than the normal. Ernino’s prediction model predicts that the sea surface temperature in the Ernino monitoring area will remain below the standard value towards the beginning of winter and then gradually approach the standard value. From the above, it is quite possible that the La Niña phenomenon will continue into the coming winter.
Status of the tropical regions of the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean
The sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific in August was higher than the standard value. The value is expected to be above the standard value or close to the standard value in the coming winter.
The sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean region in August was close to the standard value. The value is expected to be higher or closer to the standard value in early fall, and then change to a value closer to or lower than the standard value towards winter.
What is the Ernino phenomenon / La Niña phenomenon?
In the tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean, easterly winds called the trade winds blow constantly and warm seawater near the sea surface blows westward. On the other hand, off the coast of South America in the east, cold seawater gushes from the depths of the sea, so the sea level in the equatorial region of the Pacific is high in the west and low in the East. In the western Pacific Ocean, where the sea surface temperature is high, a large amount of water vapor is supplied to the atmosphere and turbulent clouds are actively generated. This is the state of the equatorial Pacific region in normal times.
<エルニーニョ現象>
When the Ernino phenomenon occurs, the east wind weakens more than normal, the warm seawater that has accumulated in the west spreads to the east, and the cold water outbreak weakens in the east. Therefore, in the central east part of the equatorial Pacific region, the sea surface temperature becomes higher than in normal times, and the sea area where turbulent clouds are actively generated also moves eastward. since normal times.
When the Ernino phenomenon occurs, the temperature tends to be low and the hours of sunshine tend to decrease in the summer near Japan. On the other hand, the temperature is usually high in winter.
<ラニーニャ現象>
When the Laninha phenomenon occurs, the east wind becomes stronger than normal, the layer of warm seawater blowing in the west becomes thicker, and turbulent clouds occur more actively in the sea near Indonesia. In contrast, in the eastern part, the outbreak of cold water is stronger than in normal times. Therefore, in the central to eastern part of the equatorial Pacific region, the sea surface temperature is lower than in normal times.
When the La Niña phenomenon occurs, the temperature tends to be high in the summer near Japan. On the other hand, the temperature tends to be low in winter.
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