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Laninha phenomenon Continues through winter Spring can be normal
The Meteorological Agency announced the “Ernino Watch Bulletin” on the 10th. The La Niña phenomenon appears to have occurred since the summer, and the La Niña phenomenon is expected to continue through the winter. Spring can also be normal.
Living condition in November
On the 10th, the Meteorological Agency published the Ernino Surveillance Bulletin.
The sea surface temperature in the Ernino monitoring area in November is lower than the standard value, the difference from the standard value is -1.2 ° C, and the September value of the 5-month moving average value used to judge the occurrence of the La Niña phenomenon is -0.9. It was ℃. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region were lower than normal from the center to the east and higher than normal in the west. The ocean surface water temperature was lower than normal from the central to the eastern part and higher than normal in the western part. Convection activity near the date line in the equatorial Pacific region was less active than normal, and the east wind (trade wind) in the lower central atmosphere became stronger than normal. Such oceanic and atmospheric conditions are characteristic of the Laninha phenomenon, and the Laninha phenomenon appears to have continued since the summer.
Prospect of the future
The cold ocean surface water found in the central to eastern part of the equatorial Pacific region is expected to persist through winter and the sea surface temperature in the eastern part will remain lower than normal. . Ernino’s prediction model predicts that the sea surface temperature in the Ernino monitoring area will remain below the standard value during the winter and then gradually approach the standard value in the spring. From the above, it is very possible that the La Niña phenomenon will continue during winter (90%). Spring may be normal (40%), but the Laninha phenomenon is more likely to continue (60%).
Status of the Western Pacific Tropical Zone and the Indian Ocean Tropical Zone
Western Pacific Tropical Zone: The sea surface temperature in the Western Pacific Tropical Zone in November was higher than the standard value. In the future, the value is expected to be above the standard value or close to the standard value until spring.
Tropical Zone of the Indian Ocean: The temperature of the sea surface in the Tropical Zone of the Indian Ocean in November was close to the standard value. In the future, the value is expected to approach the standard value or be lower than the standard value until spring.
What is the La Niña phenomenon?
On the other hand, in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific region, cold water springs are stronger than in normal times. Therefore, in the central to eastern part of the equatorial Pacific region, the sea surface temperature is lower than in normal times.
When this La Niña phenomenon occurs, it affects the climate around the world, and in the vicinity of Japan, the temperature tends to be low in winter.
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