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■ Central bank meetings in the US, UK, Turkey and Japan
In the past week(As of March 8)、 ＥＣＢ(European central bank)Announced a policy to accelerate the pace of bond buying.
It means increasing the amount of bonds purchased = suppressing the increase in interest rates.
Stock prices have risen as a result of major countries squeezing funds through monetary easing and fiscal mobilization, but the risk of a sharp rise in interest rates, especially for long-term bonds, is becoming aware. .
ＲＢＡ(Reserve Bank of Australia[豪州の中央銀行]）It showed a stance to curb interest rate hikes by expanding bond purchases, but the ECB continued.is.
this week(As of March 15), 17 (Wednesday) at midnight FOMC (US Federal Open Market Committee)The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy will be released on Friday the 19th. After all, the focus is on interest rates.
Buy long-term bonds on the FOMC(Or sell)And selling short-term bonds(Or buy)It is an open market operation that takes place at the same timeRumors of introducing the “turnaround operation”Has gone out.
Long-term US interest rates still below 2% No twisting operation introduced at this stageProbably.
(source:TradingView）
■ March 17, FOMC attention is “2023” and “SLR”
Although it is increasing, the yield on the 10-year bond is still 1.6%. Considering it was 3.2% in October 2018, it is still low.
Powell’s press conference will follow what he said so far,Attention is the dot chartIs not.
Most expect the zero interest rate policy to continue until 2023, but if more members anticipate a rate hike before then, speculation of an early cut will increase and the market will shake.is.
Attention is paid to the dot graph, as well as to “SLR”.(Complementary leverage ratio)」。
FRB as a measure against the new crown(Millian State Preparedness System Council)It is a measure to increase the liquidity introduced byThe deadline is the end of this month.。
Some banks are creating expectations that the FOMC will continue to be announced.
If it does not continue, there will be movements such as the sale of US Treasuries, which will increase the risk of interest rates rising.。
If you withdraw here, you will disrupt the market. It’s a difficult scenario, but …
YMarch 19 (Friday) Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Announcementis.
■ The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy, which has received a lot of attention. Be it to expand the range of interest rate fluctuations.
This time, the results of the “inspection” of monetary easing will be announced.
The focus is on the possibility of widening the fluctuation range of long-term interest rates from ± 0.2% to approximately ± 0.3%.。
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda denied on Friday, March 5, “I don’t think it’s necessary.”Made.
Nevertheless,On Monday, March 8, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Amemiya said: “I think interest rates can go up and down more.”doing.
The vice president usually speaks collaboratively, so there may be some speculation, butThis time just confuse the marketis.
The governor of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda, denied on Friday, March 5, that he “does not believe that it is necessary” to broaden the fluctuation range of long-term interest rates. However, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Amemiya said on Monday, March 8, “I think interest rates can go up and down further.” Mr. Nishihara noted that this time it will only confuse the market, although there may be some speculation because the vice president generally speaks cooperatively (C) Bloomberg / Getty Images.
If the fluctuation range is widened, it will cause the yen to appreciate.It is not.
That’s right, and today (March 15), bank stocks are being bought, probably due to the increasing fluctuation range of the Bank of Japan.
Another thing that is reported this time is “ETF.(Market investment trust)Suppression of the purchase objective “.
I’m upset about these headlines, but I’m not going to stop buying ETFs, I’m going to buy them flexibly so this doesn’t seem to have a huge impact.
With the current price of the stock, you don’t have to force yourself to buy it.
■ US dollar / yen for medium and long-term investors, the changes in the game are strong
The US dollar / yen rose to the 109 yen level last week.
Last Friday(March 12)、Medium to long-term players, such as macros, real money, and Asian pensions, bought about 108.50 yen.Seems.
Until then, short-term sources like hedge funds had bought it, but the subject has changed.。
With the FOMC’s two major events and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy announcement in the offing, it’s a scene that normally waits for the event to pass, but I bought it.Even if the yen strengthens in this week’s event, the picture is that it will be bought as a squeeze rather than dumped and sold.is.
(source:TradingView）
Impression that the game changer is finally getting clearerIt is not.
BOE on Thursday, March 18(Bank of England[英国の中央銀行]）And Turkey’s monetary policy will also be announced.
Turkey is expected to raise rates by 1%, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
What do you think of this week’s strategy?
[Artículo de referencia]
●The lira falls due to the rise in Turkey’s CPI and global inflation expectations. Rate Increase Essential at March Policy Meeting! (March 10, Emin Yurumaz)
●Buy the game-changing US dollar / yen! What is the future of the US dollar indicated by the “compass”? (March 8, Koichi Nishihara and Hiroko Ohashi)
You can continue to buy US dollars / yen at a bargain priceProbably.
Under Suga’s administration, the stance of preventing the appreciation of the yen has become clear, and the medium to long-term players have changed their perspectives.。
The possibility of a game changer is increasing。
(source:TradingView）
(Composition / Intermediary, Yasushi Takashiro)
[¡Zai FX! Aviso del departamento editorial]
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