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Prime Minister Yoshii Suga is obsessed with the “GoTo Travel Business” even if the cities of Osaka and Asahikawa medically collapse and seek help from the Self-Defense Forces. “Experts say there is no evidence that GoTo Travel has spread the infection,” Prime Minister Kan said.
However, research teams such as the University of Tokyo have announced that users of the GoTo Travel campaign have more suspicious symptoms of new coronavirus infection than those who did not use it. How does Prime Minister Kan see the opinion of this expert?
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Prime Minister Yoshii Suga obsessed with “Go To Travel”
Twice as many odor and flavor anomalies typical of the new crown
This time, the research results were announced by Atsushi Miyawaki, Assistant Professor at the University of Tokyo Graduate School, Takahiro Tabuchi, Deputy Director of the Department of Epidemiology, Cancer Control Center, Osaka International Cancer Center, Yasutake Tomata, Associate Professor at the Graduate School of the University of Health and Welfare, Kanagawa Prefecture. It is a joint research team made up of Yusuke Tsugawa and an assistant professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Research articles are usually published officially after being “reviewed” (evaluated and verified by researchers in the same field before they are published in an academic journal), but this time it is “urgent”. The manuscript before the review was published on the Internet on December 6.
According to the research team, this is the first study in Japan to show the relationship between GoTo travel and the risk of infection. Prime Minister Kan has been negative about GoTo Travel’s review following the spread of the infection, repeating the expert’s opinion that “there is no evidence”, which is the main cause of the spread of the infection, but investigated whether it really has something to do with her.
Although different from the definitive diagnosis using the PCR test, the percentage of people who complained of symptoms of the new crown, such as abnormal smell and taste, is statistically higher in GoTo Travel users than in those who do not use it. It turned out that there was a difference of about double.
The survey was conducted online from late August to late September this year and focused on some 28,000 men and women between the ages of 15 and 79. We investigated the association with the proportion of people who had experienced five symptoms (fever, sore throat, cough, headache, and olfactory / taste abnormalities) suggesting a new type of crown in the past month.
As a result, for example, the percentage of people who complained of olfactory / taste abnormalities was 2.6% among GoTo Travel users, while 1.7% did not. When statistical processing was performed to eliminate the effects of age and health status, the difference in the prevalence rate doubled. The prevalence was higher for users in all 5 items, including fever, cough, and headache =See the figure below。
(Graph) Incidence Rate of New Corona Symptoms for GoTo Travel Users (From Research Team Presentation Materials)
Incidentally, Prime Minister Yoshiei Suga and Governor Yuriko Koike have requested that “older people and people with underlying illnesses refrain from going to and from Tokyo.” Therefore, the research team investigated the relationship between GoTo Travel and older people and those with underlying illnesses.
By age group, the younger generations under 65 were more likely to experience suspicious symptoms of infection. This is because older people are more afraid of new corona infections, so they may have exercised caution, even when traveling, and did not increase the risk of infection as a result.
Is there no effect even if “the elderly and people with underlying diseases refrain from doing so”?
In addition, after asking them whether or not they have at least one of the main underlying diseases “overweight, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cancer”. We investigated the relationship between Go To travel use and prevalence. However, no particular relationship was found between the presence or absence of the underlying disease and prevalence.
For this reason, the research team
(1) Use of GoTo Travel may have increased the risk of a new corona infection.
(2) People at high risk of infection with the new crown may be using GoTo Travel more actively.
(3) The method currently being considered to exclude older people and people with underlying illnesses from GoTo Travel may not be very effective in controlling the spread of infection.
And so
“The current method of GoTo Travel is to give incentives (recommended reasons) to groups at high risk of new corona infection, and to control the number of infected people, it is necessary to establish target persons and rules of use. It is expected that you consider”
I posted an attractive comment.
However, the research team has not forgotten to point out the following topics as the “limits” of this survey.
(1) It cannot be concluded that the use of GoTo Travel led directly to an increase in new corona symptoms.
(2) People with new corona symptoms are not necessarily infected with new corona.
(3) The time series relationship between GoTo Travel use and the incidence of new corona symptoms is unknown.
(4) There is a possibility that people with new corona symptoms can easily remember to use GoTo Travel (remember bias = prejudice).
And so.
According to Tokyo Shimbun (December 8), “GoTo Travel users double the occurrence of taste abnormalities,” Yusuke Tsugawa, an assistant professor at the University of California in the United States, said in an interview with the newspaper.
“Since the purpose was to evaluate the impact of GoTo Travel, I was planning to publish the result that the correlation (with the new Corona) was weak, but actually showed a strong correlation (especially).) The abnormal smell and taste rare They are seen in other diseases, and it is very possible that it is a new type of crown. Based on the results of the survey, it seems unnecessary to stop the business, but it will be temporary until the spread of the infection decreases. You should consider stopping ” .
Regarding the suspension of GoTo Travel, Shigeru Omi, chairman of the government’s new crown countermeasures subcommittee, also expressed a sense of crisis on NHK’s “Sunday Discussion” program on December 6.
“Intensive reduction of people’s movements and contacts in a short period of time, including GoTo Travel, is essential to quell the infection. (Asymptomatic or mildly ill people under the age of 60 cross prefectural borders. found to be a major cause of infection spreading, completely unintentional. Unless the level of infection decreases rapidly, it will not last long. “
He admits that GoTo Travel is one of the factors behind the spread of the infection.
However, at a press conference on December 4, Prime Minister Kan announced an extension of GoTo Travel, which was scheduled to end in January next year. In addition, according to Asahi Shimbun (December 6) “Visit to Japan, study of demonstration experiments next spring, small-scale, caring for the Olympics”, “experiments” to accept tourists from abroad before the Olympics and Paralympics from Tokyo next year. To start. The Asahi Shimbun reports:
“In order to regain the (foreign visitors to Japan) that has dropped dramatically due to the spread of the new corona infection, the government has started to consider accepting small-scale decentralized travel from abroad next spring. The tour is for Oripara and after. Positioned as a “demonstration experiment”. Rigorous measures to prevent infection, such as making tour passengers move in a rented bus. They are supposed to be accepted from Asia, where the infection situation it’s quiet, like China and Taiwan. “
“The promotion of inbound is a policy of Prime Minister Yoshii Suga, and the government will maintain the goal of” 60 million visitors to Japan in 2030 “after Corona. On the other hand,” when the infection spreads among tourists, Oripara It will not be possible to open it ”(a senior government official), and non-tour tourists will not be able to enter the country before the Olympic Games. After welcoming Oripara viewers from around the world, the government will gradually resume general acceptance of tourists. It’s a way of drawing. “
That’s why.
(Kazuo Fukuda)
