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The movement of people due to the spread of the new coronavirus has stopped, demand has dropped dramatically, and the global aviation industry is suffering. Although bankruptcy has occurred, the governments of each country are making large-scale support.
The situation is truly “evaporation” of demand. Although the new coronavirus has imposed strict immigration regulations by governments, airlines have been forced to suspend or reduce flights.
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The focus is on trends in the aviation industry (photographed in 2014)
Analyze the “U-shaped recovery” pattern and two scenarios
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) estimates on April 21, 2020 that the capacity of airline seats can drop to two thirds in the first three quarters (January-September). Announced We analyze two scenarios: a pattern of “recovery V-shaped “in which demand recovers quickly, and a” U-shaped recovery “pattern in which demand recovers slowly. Assuming that signs of recovery will begin to appear in the “V shape” at the end of May, the maximum supply of seats during the period will decrease by 56% year-on-year, the number of passengers will decrease by 963 million and airline revenue they will reach 218 billion. The dollar (23.460 trillion yen) will drop. On the other hand, in the “U-shape”, assuming it will begin to recover in the third quarter or later, similarly, it decreased by 67%, decreased by 1,117 million and decreased by 253 billion dollars (27,220 thousand million yen) respectively. Dear
Japan is also serious. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, the number of flights scheduled for international flights to and from Japan from April 19 to 25 will be 96% less than winter time in 2019. According to the summary of the Nikkei newspaper ( April 23) of the airline announcements, the Golden Week reservation status (April 29 to May 6) was 14,582 international passengers, 97.3% less than in the same period last year, and domestic flights. It also decreased 88.8% to 308,628. All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL) airlines have already reduced the number of flights by 90%, but the booking fee is still around 30%, which is well below 50% of the line profitable.
Zip Air Tokyo, a low-cost airline (LCC) under JAL, was forced to postpone the first flight scheduled for May 14, and was chilled by the large-scale entry of JAL’s much-appreciated LCC. In addition, Skymark had to withdraw its reincorporation to the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which it was targeting this spring.
