[ad_1]
Let us consider 2020 as a lucky year. This sounds strange given that the new coronavirus infection (COVID19) has killed nearly 1.8 million people worldwide and is damaging the economies of many countries. The “good luck” here is related to the fact that the two vaccines, Physer / Germany Biontech and Moderna, have shown efficacy in excess of 90% and have been granted an emergency license.
This has been possible thanks to advances in science and technology, which could well hasten the end of the pandemic. Other vaccines are coming. But, unfortunately, there is a risk that this early success will lead to pride.
Like other viruses, the new corona repeats mutations, and over time, there is a chance that some variants will become less effective. That is why global and coordinated surveillance efforts are needed for humanity to successfully cope with changes in the virus. But sadly, it still doesn’t seem to happen.
The UK is well ahead of this surveillance effort. A research team in the country conducted more than 150,000 analyzes of total genetic information (genome) of viruses isolated from infected individuals and confirmed many changes in the virus protein, including expertsAlso included is a variant called “B.1.1.7”, which is concerned with the strength of infectivity.
What is particularly impressive is that “B.1.1.7” caused a total of 23 mutations and also changed the shape of the protruding protein called spikes on the surface of the virus. Many vaccines, including the Physer and Moderna vaccines, are targeting this increase. There is still no convincing evidence that existing vaccines are ineffective against this variant, but it raises concerns.
The author was concerned that “escape” mutations would occur after widespread use of the vaccine, but these changes appear to occur even without extensive immunization. The problem is that while we know what mutations are happening in the UK, we don’t know how widespread other variants are in the European Union (EU), the US and Asia because the data is not well tracked. This must be changed to effectively control the new Corona.
There are three things to do. First, governments around the world must work together to strengthen virus surveillance to the same level as the UK. This will allow us to more effectively assess changes in response to vaccination. It will soon be known if the vaccine is effective for “B.1.1.7”. However, in order not to be surprised by the virus in the future, it is necessary to evaluate the response to the immunity of the vaccine of all variants found throughout the world.
This is already being done in the fight against the influenza virus and we are developing new vaccines every year. The same should be done with the new Crown if necessary. In addition, there must be universal rules about the types of mutations of interest. For example, do you develop vaccine candidates every time a new variant is found, or do you focus on variants that have been tested to show that existing vaccines are less effective?
The next step is to ensure that vaccine manufacturers work closely with the government to develop vaccines for the new variants of interest. This can be costly and time consuming, but relative if you are using new technologies like Physer Biontech or the Messenger RNA (mRNA) from Moderna or the “virus vector” from AstraZeneca or Johnson End Johnson (J&J). Low cost. These technologies will help rapidly develop new vaccine candidates within two months.
The last piece of the puzzle is the regulatory framework for the distribution of new vaccines. Again, you can use what you already did with the flu vaccine. Businesses, regulators, and governments must develop a set of simple rules to avoid waiting for large, late-stage clinical trials to bring new vaccines to market.
The author is optimistic that all of this is feasible. Extensive genome analysis has already been carried out in the UK. The presence of the renewed US Center for Disease Control (CDC) will be a powerful reinforcement. With the addition of countries and regions such as China and the EU, a global consortium will be able to systematically track viruses. The pharmaceutical and biotech industries are demonstrating their ability and willingness to act quickly.
It would be a waste to end up losing in the fight against the virus, even though the first vaccines had such good news. Especially if it can be avoided. We must act as soon as possible.
(Sam Fazelli is Senior Pharmaceutical Industry Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and Head of Research in Europe, Middle East and Africa. The content of this column necessarily reflects the views of the editorial department, Bloomberg LP and the owners. Not a thing)
Original title:
How to anticipate a mutant virus: Sam Fazeli （抜 粋）
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
