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Weathernews 6th Cherry Blossom Forecast
03/17/2021 12:04 PM Weathernews
■ Flowering forecast points ■
・ Western and Eastern Japan will flourish in almost all areas this month
・ Tokyo will bloom next week on Tuesday 23
・ Buds in Tohoku are also “green ahead”
The cherry blossom blossom in 2021 this year began in Hiroshima on March 11, followed by Fukuoka on March 12, followed by Tokyo, Matsue and Nagasaki on March 14.
It has become a record bloom in various places, and in Hiroshima, Fukuoka, Nagasaki, Matsue, Takamatsu, Kyoto, and Shimonoseki, the earliest bloom since the start of the statistics in 1953 was updated, and in Tokyo and Saga, it was updated observed along with last year. It was the earliest flowering in history.
What will happen after this, Weathernews will announce the “6th Cherry Blossom Forecast” for 2021.
Calculated based on more than 2 million cherry blossom reports and weather forecasts received from “Project Sakura” participants over the past 17 years. See when cherry blossoms will begin to bloom near your home.
It is likely that due to the strong cold air that frequently visited from the end of the year until the first half of January, the dormancy of the cherry blossoms was firmly broken, and the growth of the buds was favored by the tendency to the high temperatures of the second half of January.
Although the weather will change periodically during the coming April and the temperature will rise and fall, the temperature is expected to be higher than normal throughout the period, and the buds will accelerate growth until flowering.
It is expected to bloom in almost all areas of western and eastern Japan, including Hokuriku, in March, and to bloom in early April in Nagano. It blooms over a wide area of western and eastern Japan earlier than normal or very early, and it looks like there will be record times.
Even in northern Japan, the number of sunny and warm days will increase in the second half of March. In April, there is the possibility of a spring storm due to the effects of the developing low pressure system, but there are some sunny days and bud growth is expected to go smoothly. Fukushima and Sendai will bloom on March 30, followed by Yamagata on April 6. The cherry blossom front will land in Hokkaido in late April, and Hakodate is expected to bloom on April 25 and Sapporo is expected to bloom on April 26.
It is expected to be in full bloom on March 23 in Tokyo, Nagoya on March 27, and Osaka on March 26.
Out of 3,994 cherry trees nationwide (including 3,251 Yoshino cherry trees), current bud growth is the same or slightly faster than last year from Kanto to Kinki, and since last year in Chugoku / Shikoku and Kyushu. I found that I was progressing at a rapid pace.
In western and eastern Japan, bud growth has progressed considerably compared to the previous survey (March 5-7).
In the second week of March the low pressure systems and fronts passed, but from the middle of the week there were many sunny days covered by high pressure systems.
On sunny days, the temperature rose and the growth of the buds accelerated. Especially in western Japan, the number of buds that grew rapidly and were “pink at the tip” just before flowering increased to 34% in Kyushu and 14% in Kinki. The Kanto region has also grown since the previous time, and is growing at about the same rate as last year, which was a record rate of flowering.
On the other hand, in northern Japan, the number of buds that have changed since the last survey has increased. In the Tohoku region, there are more reports that the tip has turned green, and in the south, there are shoots that have changed to the pink tip. Most of the buds are still “small and tough” in Hokkaido, but some of them have started to change.
Cherry blossoms tend to bloom earlier each year, and in the last 10 years, from 2011 to 2020, cherry blossoms bloomed later than the normal bloom date only twice in 2011 and 2012.
This is said to be related to the effects of climate change and urbanization in recent years, as well as the aging of cherry blossoms.
Cherry trees tend to bloom earlier as they age. For this reason, the Japan Meteorological Agency replaces the sample trees depending on the flowering and full flowering situation, but even in the year when the temperature has passed to the normal level, the flowering time may be earlier than the normal year.
In this context, Weathernews Cherry Blossom Forecast includes annual bloom dates that reflect the latest blooming trends in addition to normal bloom dates.
* In this article, flowering is defined as follows.
Normal year: mean value from 1981 to 2010
Average year: 2016-2020 average
Very early: 7 days or more earlier than standard
Early: 5-6 days earlier than standard
Slightly early: 3-4 days earlier than standard
Average: difference from standard in 2 days
Slightly late: 3-4 days later than standard
Slow: 5-6 days later than standard
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