Bank of Japan’s short-term business sentiment in the manufacturing industry of large companies improved for the first time in 11 quarters, below market expectations, Bloomberg



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Bank of Japan headquarters prior to rate decisions

Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg

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According to the September survey of the Bank of Japan’s Short-Term Economic Observation Survey (Short View), the Business Condition Judgment Index (DI), which indicates the business sentiment of large companies and manufacturing industries, was under 27, which was significantly worse due to the influence of the new coronavirus infection. It improved by 7 points over the previous June survey. The improvement was the first in 11 quarters, but it was below market expectations. The level remains low and companies remain cautious.

Main point

  • DI, which is obtained by subtracting the percentage of companies that responded “poorly” from the percentage of companies that responded “well”, was minus 27 for large companies and manufacturing industries, an improvement of 7 points over the previous survey, the Bloomberg survey forecast is minus 24.
  • Non-manufacturing is minus 12, 5 point improvement-Forecast is minus 9
  • The outlook is expected to improve to minus 17 in manufacturing and minus 11 in non-manufacturing.
  • The exchange rate assumption for fiscal year 2020 is set at 107.34 yen per dollar, which is the direction of the yen’s appreciation from the previous time (107.87 yen).
Non-manufacturing industry improved for the first time in 5 terms
Views of Nagoya as Peak of Japan's Current Virus Wave

Toyota car waiting for export shipment in Nagoya port

Photographer: Toru Hanai / Bloomberg

background

  • Last timeIn June, the DI business condition of large companies and manufacturing industries was minus 34, the lowest level since the June 2009 survey (minus 48) after the Lehman crisis. Economic activity has gradually resumed after the April-June low when the economy deteriorated due to the declaration of emergency.
  • The Bank of Japan has a monetary policy in September as the economy improves, focusing on exports and production.The current situation was revised upwards at the decision meeting. Governor Tohiko Kuroda told a round table in Osaka that the Japanese economy is still in a difficult situation, but is “recovering”.
  • However, the end of the new crown cannot be foreseen and economic activities are mainly restricted to personal consumption. There is a deep sense of caution about the second wave around the world, as the infection has spread again in Europe. The Bank of Japan believes that steady capital investment is declining and the pace of economic improvement will slow.
  • Yoshiei Suga’s Cabinet aims to prevent the spread of infection and balance socio-economic activities. The government and the Bank of Japan are promoting crown measures through large-scale financial and financial measures. At the inaugural meeting, Prime Minister Kan said: “I would like to continue taking measures without hesitation.”

(Updated with key points and graphics)

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