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A second emergency declaration was issued from February 8 to 7 for the 1 metropolitan area and 3 prefectures in the metropolitan area where the novel coronavirus infection is spreading rapidly. Although the government is eager to resolve the situation in a month, some experts from the Subcommittee on Infectious Disease Control are skeptical. As self-control fatigue spreads among people, there are limits to legal measures that cannot be enforced.
A member of the subcommittee, Professor Hitoshi Oshiya (Microbiology) from Tohoku University Graduate School, said: “I don’t know if the situation will improve in a month,” and the number of newly infected people during the period “decreased to pretty high speed. ” I pointed out that it is necessary.
Shigeru Omi, chairman of the New Crown Infectious Disease Control Subcommittee, who attended the press conference with Prime Minister Yoshii Suga on the 7th, said: “Take concrete, strong and effective measures to reduce the number of newly infected within a month It is important to pass the revised bill of the Special Measures Act at an early stage.
On the 6th, President Omi suggested that the cancellation of the declaration in less than a month is a “difficult task” and that the cancellation time may be delayed until March-April, but at the meeting on the 7th “it is not so easy. “. But if everyone does the best they can, “the nuance changed a bit.
In this emergency declaration, the government has included requests such as shortening the business hours of entertainment facilities such as restaurants and karaoke with eating and drinking until 8:00 pm, and reducing the number of employees by 70%, but on the other On the other hand, the nurseries that were there last time. Temporary closures such as elementary and middle schools are not included.
Prime Minister Kan and Chairman of the Omi Subcommittee
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
Regarding the conditions for canceling the emergency declaration, the government thoroughly considers whether the infection situation has gone from the worst “stage 4 (explosion of infection)” to the second worst “stage 3 (rapid increase in infection) “in four stages. I will judge.
In a meeting on the 7th, Minister of Economic Revitalization Yasutoshi Nishimura explained that one guideline is whether the average number of infected people per day in Tokyo will be less than 500 per week. On the same day, the number of newly infected people in Tokyo reached a record 2,447.
The revised bill of the Special Measures Law, which stipulates the response to the new crown that the government and the ruling party plan to present to the ordinary parliament convened on the 18th, will again establish sanctions for restaurant operators that do not respond to requests for self-monitoring. The aim is to increase the effectiveness of the requests made by the governors of the prefectures.
Contact reduction 80% for 1 month
According to estimates by Professor Hiroshi Nishiura (Environmental Hygiene) of the Graduate School of Kyoto University, known as “Uncle 80%”, an infected person produces an average of 2.5 secondary infected persons (effective reproduction number 2.5). Assuming that, an 80% contact reduction is required to reduce the number of newly infected people in a month. It is stated that 70% will take two months.
At the meeting on the 7th, the Minister of Economic Revitalization Nishimura recalled that the initial decrease in contacts was 40% at the time of the previous emergency declaration, and it could be achieved by 80% within a month. The last time, it aired for a month from April 7 to May 6, and the target area started in 7 prefectures, such as the Osaka metropolitan area and Osaka prefecture, and expanded nationwide in about a week. After that, the period was extended in Tokyo and elsewhere, and it took 49 days to cancel the declaration.
On the 8th, Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura of Osaka Prefecture decided to request the government to reissue the emergency declaration. It has clarified the idea of cooperating with the Hyogo and Kyoto prefectures.
Voice of the doctor, not the government
Professor Oshiya noted that the infection situation in Osaka prefecture did not worsen as much as in Tokyo during the New Year and New Year holidays. From restaurants offering some alcoholic beveragesIn addition to taking strict measures such as requesting a leave of absence, it was analyzed that the rigidity of the medical system may have led to greater public alert.
“The Japanese often listen to the stories of doctors and medical professionals,” he said. The government may not change its behavior when it says something, but if the hospital itself complains about a tense situation, it could reach the public.
In December last year, in Osaka prefecture, the prefectural medical association held an emergency meeting, and the bed operation rate for critically ill patients remained close to 80%, and some medical institutions were forced to restrict accepting emergency services and suspending some medical treatments. The fact that it started was reported in the media every day.
Of the 4,000 beds secured for new corona infection in Tokyo, the usage rate as of day 7 was 79%. Of the 250 beds for seriously ill patients, 121 are occupied and the number of infected awaiting hospitalization and adjustment of medical treatment is 4,759. EighthAccording to preliminary figures, the number of newly infected people was 2,392, surpassing 2,000 for the second day in a row.
(Updated to reflect Osaka Prefecture’s request and latest number of infected people)
