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The “third wave” does not seem to converge anymore. On December 12, the number of new corona viruses infected in Tokyo was 621, and the number of infected people across the country was a record 3,039.
“The turning point to prevent the spread of the infection was November,” said Ken Kosaka, a professor at the Tohoku University Graduate School of Dentistry, who is also a member of the Cluster Countermeasures Group of the Ministry of Health, Labor. and wellness.
[Artículo relacionado: 47 consejos de prefecturas puntúan urgentemente “Contramedidas de Corona” Nuestro libro de correspondencia del gobernador]
“According to a survey by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number of cluster outbreaks in November has almost tripled compared to October. There is no doubt that the spread of the ‘third wave’ started at this time.”
What happened in November? This magazine independently aggregates 332 groups that have occurred across the country based on news reports and government announcements. By looking at this “big data” we can see that the spread of the infection did not stop because we did not take action in November.
Asahikawa, Hokkaido’s second-largest city, is on the brink of medical collapse. In the city, the central hospital, which plays a central role in regional medical care, was forced to suspend outpatient treatment and surgery, eventually requesting medical support from the Self-Defense Forces. Yoshito Futaki, Visiting Professor in the Department of Infectious Diseases at Showa University Hospital, which specializes in clinical infectious diseases, discusses this.
“As of December 9, Asahikawa Welfare Hospital, one of the main hospitals, has more than 250 infected people and has the largest group in Japan as a hospital. In addition, Yoshida Hospital in Asahikawa City. The number of clusters produced in Japan also reached 197. Clearly there was a problem with the initial response. “
Yoshida Hospital said on behalf of the president: “I asked the city health center to transfer the infected person, but it took time and led to the expansion of the group.” Proper cluster management starting in November could have prevented this from happening.
According to Professor Kosaka mentioned above, the “all clusters in November” compiled by this magazine have the following trends.
“There are many things related to the ‘night city’ like restaurants that still have entertainment. About 20% of the groups are related to hospital infection and nursing care. However, there are other groups everywhere, such as schools, it’s happening.
In general, I think we can conclude that “the group has descended from the” night city “to the” day city “”.
Professor Futaki also analyzes this.
“In the first and second waves, it was clear that there was a tendency for clusters to occur in the ‘night towns’ and in the ‘three dense’ restaurants and residences, but in the third wave, such a trend is difficult to read. Anytime, anywhere, anyone is more likely to get involved in a cluster. “
In this tabulation, the number of clusters that were produced differed greatly by prefecture. The strangest thing is that there are only 5 clusters in Tokyo, which has a large population and the number of infected people is extremely high. Regarding the reason, the Tokyo Metropolitan Infectious Disease Control Headquarters responded:
“When a cluster occurs, we make known to the press what is reported by each health center. We announce it when a large-scale cluster occurs in hospitals, etc., but in the case of the capital the number of occurrences is also announced. Many do not know it and publish everything ”.
In other words, Tokyo does not know the exact status of the cluster occurrence.
The fact that the Toyosu market, which has 160 infected people, is not clustered does not appear to be related to the fact that the certification criteria are left to the local government. A person in charge of the Tokyo Central Wholesale Market said: “The reason why Toyosu Market is not certified as a group is that it does not meet the group’s national certification standard of ‘follow the route of infection.’
The city is only trying to get worse and preventive measures against the spread of infection are reaching the level of “it is too late.”
Professor Futaki
On the other hand, like Hokkaido, Osaka prefecture is in danger of medical collapse. Clusters in hospitals and facilities for the elderly stand out.
“Osaka does not have a large group like Asahikawa, but the number of outbreaks is high, which puts pressure on the medical system. Because many infected people are elderly, there are few people seriously ill or dead.” Absent.
Unlike Tokyo, in Osaka, the percentage of students who live with their families in their parents’ home is high. In many cases, asymptomatic youngsters infect their grandparents who live with them. “(Professor Futaki)
According to Professor Futaki, the most important characteristic of the third wave group is that it “cannot follow the route of infection.”
“Shigeru Omi, chairman of the government’s new crown countermeasures subcommittee, also said: ‘I can no longer find the source of the cluster infection as before,’ but the route of infection is now 60% unknown.
Many domestic and occupational infections are said to exist, but it is unknown where the infection originated. Clusters of ‘night cities’ can grow back, bringing viruses to homes and workplaces ”(Ibid.).
Now that the cluster is going “invisible”, “Go To Travel” was extended once until June 2021 and only on December 14, when the government went from December 28 to January 11. He decided to stop. 2021 will be the beginning of the year of “resistance”.
The related links below will reveal big data for a total of 332 confirmed clusters across the country in November.
(Weekly FLASH December 29, 2020)
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