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The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) noted on day 1 that the re-spread of the new coronavirus has slowed the path of global economic recovery, governments have rapidly withdrawn support, and effective vaccines have become widespread. If not, he warned, the pace of recovery would be even slower.
The OECD lowered its global growth outlook for 2021 to 4.2% from its September forecast (5%). The new corona, pandemic and lockdown patterns are likely to continue for the foreseeable future, increasing the risk of leaving a permanent impact.
Growth prospects for the Eurozone and the UK have been significantly reduced, with the UK at 4.2% (previous forecast: 7.6%). In the United States, it was 3.2%, down from the previous 4%.
Cushioned rebound
The resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic and government shutdowns are affecting the outlook in most economies
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
“There is still a lot to do on policy,” said chief economist Lawrence Boone, warning that “if public health or financial policy stumbles, confidence will be lost and the outlook will be even darker.” Rang.
He noted that the success of the dissemination of the new corona treatment will be one of the decisive factors that will determine the recovery path. With the government ending the lockdown, companies resuming operations and high expectations that people will be able to return to work, the delays will have a serious impact, saying: “The cost to the economy is great. The risk of financial turmoil will increase. originated in vulnerable nations and companies and their spread to the world. “
Furthermore, the OECD notes that there is a growing risk that regional divergences will lead to long-term changes in the world economy. Europe and North America did not contribute as much to 2021 growth as their economies, expecting China to be responsible for more than a third of global growth.
Divergent fortunes
Most major economies face a long road to recovery, while China makes progress
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Governments argued that they should continue to support the economy after the lockdown measures were lifted, avoiding the “financial gulf” when the emergency measures expired. The OECD has denied the strong concerns, saying that public debt is increasing but borrowing costs are low.
However, he said that some of the spending was not used effectively, noting that “there is a lack of correlation between financial support and the resulting economic performance.”
He also argued that support should be aimed at small businesses that are at high risk of bankruptcy, low-income people with inadequate safety nets, poor families and vulnerable people who are severely affected by the crisis, such as children who have difficulties. to attend school.
“Despite large-scale policy support measures, even in good scenarios, pandemics will undermine the socioeconomic makeup of countries around the world,” argued Boone.
The OECD forecasts Japan’s 21-year growth rate to be 2.3%. The euro area is expected to be 3.6%.
Original title:OECD cuts global forecast and warns governments to maintain support 、 OECD forecasts GDP of OECD countries -5.5% in 2020; + 3.3% in 2021 （抜 粋）
