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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that the global economic recession caused by the new corona virus will be slower than expected. He noted that strong economic measures launched by the governments of many countries and regions had alleviated the impact, but cautioned that the recovery path would not be flat until the infection was suppressed.
In the World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on the 13th, the IMF revised its forecast for global growth for this year to minus 4.4%, compared to minus 5.2% in June. In 2021, it is expected to rise 5.2%, down from 5.4% previously.
This year’s economic recession will be the worst since the Great Crisis, as expected after the review. Due to the popularity of the new crown, this week’s IMF / World Bank Annual Meeting will also be held virtually.
Small upward revision
The IMF now estimates that the world economy will contract 4.4% this year
Source: International Monetary Fund.
Gita Gopinato, IMF chief economist, said in a WEO report: “As long as the pandemic continues to expand, the recovery is uncertain. The world faces a difficult road to regain levels of pre-pandemic activity.” “There is.”
The IMF noted that efforts by policy makers, such as the European reconstruction package and large-scale asset purchases by the central bank, eased the effects of the economic downturn. He said that these unprecedented supportive measures have contributed to the relaxation of the financial environment in developed countries / regions and most emerging / developing countries since June.
Gopinato stressed that lawmakers should avoid rushing to withdraw support. The IMF forecasts assume that monetary policy will remain in its current state until the end of 2013.
In addition, although the policy of social distance will continue until next year, it will be gradually lifted with the spread of vaccines, and the number of domestic infections is expected to be low worldwide by the end of 2010.
This year’s upward revisions to the outlook were particularly better than expected in April-June (second quarter) in the US and the Eurozone, a stronger-than-expected growth recovery in China and July-September ( third trimester). ), The IMF explained that it reflected signs of accelerated recovery.
GDP forecast 2020
Source: International Monetary Fund.
This year’s growth forecast for the United States has been revised to minus 4.3%, down from minus 8%, the biggest upward revision of any major country. Additional economic measures are not considered in this forecast. The forecast for 2009 is + 3.1% (previously + 4.5%).
In the euro area, this year it was minus 8.3% (-10.2%), and in 2009 it was plus 5.2% (plus 6%). This year’s forecast for developed economies as a whole was minus 5.8%, up from the previous forecast of minus 8.1%.
Meanwhile, emerging markets are estimated to grow 3.3% this year, down from 3.1% previously.
Among the major countries, China, which is expected to grow only positively this year, is expected to grow by 1.9% this year and 8.2% in 2009.
Although the IMF expects total world production to exceed the end of 2019 by 0.6% by the end of 2009, almost everything is due to the contribution of China, and most countries, including the United States, will have a new crown. up to at least 22 years. It is not expected to recover to the previous level.
Original title:The IMF sees a shallow recession and a difficult road back to full recovery （抜 粋）
