2020/09/15 16:32 Weather news
At 3:00 p.m. on Tuesday, September 15, a tropical low pressure is developing in the Philippines. The Meteorological Agency has announced that the tropical low pressure is expected to turn into a typhoon in the South China Sea in 24 hours.
Tropical lows are more likely to travel westward in the South China Sea to Vietnam. There is no impact in Japan.
The next typhoon will be “Typhoon No. 11”.
▼ Forecast 24 hours later Wednesday, September 16, 3:00 p.m.
Typhoon type
Area of existence South China Sea
Force class //
Move 15 km / h northwest west
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed 18 m / s (near center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 25 m / s
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Sea surface water temperature analysis (28 ° C or more south of the white line)
This year, the area of the sea where the sea surface temperature is high has spread to the north, and even on the Honshu coast, the sea surface water temperature is close to 30 ° C, which which is exceptional heat. In general, when the sea surface water temperature is about 28 ° C or more, tropical low pressures and typhoons are likely to develop, and tropical low pressure is expected to move westward while strengthening its power. .
Also, if conditions like weak winds overlap in the sky, there is a chance that when it reaches the coast of Japan, it will not lose its power like a normal typhoon, and in some cases it will approach and land in the peak state of development. . That is also possible.
(Reference) Forecast from meteorological organizations around the world
The tropical low pressure is expected to move west for a while, but is more likely to gradually move north from the middle of the week.
By comparing the simulation results calculated by meteorological institutions around the world such as Europe and the United States, it can be seen that there is a wide range of possible trajectories for tropical low pressure, from those pointing east of Okinawa to those pointing east of Japan. I will.
Since the impact in each region varies greatly by course, it is important to consider all possibilities and prepare for the worst case for each region until the accuracy of the prediction improves over time.
Typhoon number in normal years
When the next typhoon occurs, it will be called “Typhoon No. 11”. The average number of typhoons in September is 4.8, and there is a possibility that several typhoons will occur this year as well.
This year, the total number of typhoons that occurred in July was very small, at 2, but in August there were 7 typhoons that exceeded the average year, and the rate of occurrence suddenly increased.
There is a possibility that more typhoons will approach Honshu in the fall. Recheck preparations for heavy rains and storms caused by typhoons.
As for the names of typhoons, 140 names proposed by the member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee” are prepared in advance and given in the order of appearance.
Typhoon # 23’s name “Halong” was proposed by Vietnam and is derived from the name of a beautiful bay in northern Vietnam.
