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Weathernews 7th Cherry Blossom Forecast
03/24/2021 11:52 AM Weathernews
■ Flowering forecast points ■
・ Western and Eastern Japan are in full bloom over the weekend
・ South Tohoku begins to bloom this weekend
・ Latest results from the “national bud survey”
The cherry blossom blossom in 2021 began in Hiroshima on March 11, followed by Fukuoka on March 12, followed by Tokyo, Matsue and Nagasaki on the 14th. It has become a record for early flowering in several places, and in Hiroshima, Fukuoka, Nagasaki, Matsue, Takamatsu, Kyoto, Shimonoseki, Osaka, Tottori, Tsu, Hikone and Toyama, has updated the earliest bloom since the start of the statistics in 1953.
Tokyo, which flourished on the 14th, Gifu on the 16th, Saga and Nagoya on the 17th, Okayama on the 20th and Mito are also the records of Thailand.
What will happen after this, Weathernews will announce the “7th Cherry Blossom Forecast” for 2021.
Calculated based on more than 2 million cherry blossom reports and weather forecasts received from “Project Sakura” participants over the past 17 years. See when the cherry blossoms will begin to bloom near your home.
Western and eastern Japan are expected to flourish over the weekend, with Nagoya on the 26th and Osaka on the 27th.
It blossomed in Fukui on the 22nd, Kanazawa on the 23rd and Toyama on the 24th today, the first flowering in the history of observation.
In Hokuriku and South Tohoku, there will be a flowering surge over the weekend. Niigata is expected to flower on the 27th, and Sendai and Fukushima are expected to flower on the 28th, both of which will have record early flowering.
In April, there are days when the weather collapses due to a spring storm, but the cherry blossom front continues to move north steadily and will land in Hokkaido in late April. It is expected to bloom in Hakodate on April 25 and in Sapporo on April 26.
Out of 3,994 cherry trees nationwide (including 3,251 Yoshino cherry trees), flowering in western and eastern Japan progressed smoothly, and growth in Tohoku and Hokuriku also progressed, resulting in unprecedented early flowering. Turns out, he’s progressing at about the same rate as last year.
This week there was a spring storm on the weekends, but there were many hot days in eastern and western Japan, with some days with temperatures above 20 ° C. In western and eastern Japan, the growth of the Buds have progressed further and the number of flowering areas has increased compared to the previous survey (March 12-14). In Hokuriku, there are more reports of buds “seeing petals”, and flowering is just around the corner. In Tohoku, more than 50% of the reports were “green ahead”, and in the south, there were outbreak reports that “petals were visible”. Reports have started pouring in to Hokkaido as well, and we can see the northward movement of the front of the cherry blossoms.
Cherry blossoms tend to bloom earlier each year, and in the last 10 years, from 2011 to 2020, cherry blossoms bloomed later than the normal bloom date only twice in 2011 and 2012.
This is said to be related to the effects of climate change and urbanization in recent years, as well as the aging of cherry blossoms.
Cherry trees tend to bloom earlier as they age. For this reason, the Japan Meteorological Agency replaces the sample trees depending on the flowering and full flowering situation, but even in the year when the temperature has passed to the normal level, the flowering time may be earlier than the normal year.
In this context, Weathernews Cherry Blossom Forecast includes annual bloom dates that reflect the latest blooming trends in addition to normal bloom dates.
* In this article, flowering is defined as follows.
Normal year: mean value from 1981 to 2010
Average year: 2016-2020 average
Very early: 7 days or more earlier than standard
Early: 5-6 days earlier than standard
Slightly early: 3-4 days earlier than standard
Average: difference from standard in 2 days
Slightly late: 3-4 days later than standard
Slow: 5-6 days later than standard
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