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[Tokio 12 de Reuters]- The Nikkei average continued to grow on the 4th on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In addition to the rise in US long-term interest rates declining, the approval of the SQ (Special Compensation Index) main calculation has spread a sense of security across the market, and the move to buy back primarily High-tech stocks have become active. We ask market participants for their opinions.
● For a combination of buy and sell dividend rights
By passing the main calculation of SQ (Special Clearing Index), the top cap has come off, but due to the situation at the weekend, next week is important, as the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC ) and the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. decision meeting. Considering that the event is approaching, the Nikkei average, which appears to have risen considerably due to the buyback of futures, has exceeded the 25-day moving average, which stands at around 29,500 yen, so short-term sources I have no choice but to buy again. Probably not in the situation.
The reason the market has come back at a steady pace here is that US long-term interest rates, which had skyrocketed, have stabilized. Given the reality that the bull market has been supported by excess liquidity, this adjustment was natural. Although it is true that the increase in interest rates is a good indicator of the expectations of economic recovery, there cannot be a “good increase in interest rates” in terms of supply and demand.
Regarding Japanese equities, we have added momentum to the return market, but the Nikkei average of 30,000 yen or more has digested the business, so there is a strong squeak feeling and it looks like sales will be high. On the other hand, the acquisition of dividend rights is expected to become more active before the end of the fiscal year, and there is a possibility that the buying and selling will be mixed and slow. In the near future, this is likely to be a nervous event, as events like the FOMC and the Bank of Japan policymaking meeting are drawing attention.
● President Powell’s dialogue with the market is a highlight.
Long-term interest rates in the US, which caused adjustments in the stock market due to the sharp increase, have settled in the low range of 1.5%, and stock prices in Japan and the US. They have rebounded. Originally, the initial phase in which interest rates began to rise shows a good corporate performance, and in that sense, the statement of the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) on day 4 is correct, but it is too much of market. The dialogue was a shame. In that sense, it reminds me of the Bernanke shock of 2013.
At the time, the US Dow fell 6% in a month after the release, and the Nikkei average fell 22%. The rise in long-term interest rates in the United States is accompanied by the depreciation of currencies in other countries, which has caused particularly severe damage to emerging countries, and the index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange has fallen to about half. Again, if we are to take a step towards tapering (reduction of quantitative easing) at this point, it is not surprising that a similar situation occurs.
As for long-term interest rates, if it rises slowly, the logic of buying good corporate performance and raising stock prices is true, but if it rises strongly, it will obviously be a negative factor for stock prices like this time. For the time being, President Powell’s dialogue with the market will be the center of attention.
In any case, it is true that the economy is normalizing, so there is no change in the uptrend of stock prices as a major trend. However, with respect to Japanese equities, there is a business sentiment gap with the United States, and there is a gap in vaccine performance at the root, and even if Japanese equities rise from increased exports due to the US and China boom, there is a possibility that they will be delayed. In a situation like the Bernanke crash, the way to lower it can be relatively large.
Regular buying and holding is risky and will require fine-tuned portfolio care as big adjustments are expected due to the phase-down debate.
● A sense of security in the market with the support of the Japanese and European financial authorities.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to stop the dreaded rise in long-term interest rates in the US amid major events such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan next week. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Japan and Europe have supported it, which has given a sense of security in the stock market. Central banks, including the United States, do not seem to like the increase in long-term interest rates, and President Powell is expected to clearly achieve the increase in long-term interest rates after the FOMC.
On the other hand, what should be highlighted in the stock market at the moment is the supply and demand side. Orders related to the main SQ (Special Compensation Index) calculated today are presumed to be dominant in buying, but there is evidence that actual demand sales were affected where the board got thicker. Trust bank sales are attracting attention in terms of business trends from investors, but there are concerns that supply and demand will deteriorate due to such sales before the end of March. In particular, it seems that we need to be careful about stocks that were bought last year.
