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Weathernews 5th Cherry Blossom Forecast
2021/03/10 12:43 Weathernews
■ Flowering forecast points ■
・ It will bloom in Fukuoka on the 12th and in Tokyo on the 15th
・ Buds that have a “pink tip”
For the cherry blossom season approaching just before, Weathernews will announce the “Fifth Cherry Blossom Forecast” for 2021.
Calculated based on more than 2 million cherry blossom reports and weather forecasts received from “Project Sakura” participants over the past 17 years. See when the cherry blossoms will begin to bloom near your home.
In many cases, it is about 10 days earlier than normal and is expected to be a record. Compared to last year, there are many places in eastern and northern Japan that are more or less the same, and in Kanto and Tohoku, which blossomed record-breaking early last year, it is expected to be a bit later.
It is expected to be much earlier in western Japan than last year, especially in southern Kyushu, where the advance of torpor was delayed due to the influence of last year’s warm winter.
The buds of today’s cherry blossoms are growing at the same rate or slightly faster than they did last year, when they bloomed earlier. The temperature is expected to be higher than normal in the future, and although the weather may be gradual, there will be many sunny and warm days, and the growth of the buds will accelerate at the same time.
Growth is accelerating, especially in northern Kyushu, and flowering will begin in Fukuoka on the 12th (Friday) of this weekend earlier than the rest of the country. It will bloom in Tokyo and Nagasaki on the 15th (Monday) of the beginning of the week, followed by Yokohama, Nagoya and Saga on the 16th (Tuesday). In Fukuoka and Nagoya, it will be the earliest flowering since the observation began in 1953, and is expected to flower as fast as last year, which was a record in Tokyo.
In northern Japan, although it snows and rains mainly on the side of the Sea of Japan in March due to the influence of cold air, the number of sunny days is expected to increase towards the end of the month. April is affected by the developed low pressure system, but in Hokkaido it seems to be sunny in late April, just before flowering. Temperatures from March to April are expected to be higher than normal and the buds are growing steadily.
Flowering will begin in Sendai and Fukushima on March 31, and the cherry blossom front will land in Hokkaido in late April. It is expected to bloom in Sapporo on April 26 and in Kushiro on May 11.
Of 2,885 cherry trees nationwide (including 2,280 Yoshino cherry trees), current bud growth is progressing at a slightly faster rate than last year, mainly in western Japan, and about the same rate as last year in eastern Japan. I found out that it was growing.
Over the past week, the weather has changed cyclically, with alternating ups and downs. After the low pressure system passed, there were days when it cooled down due to cold air in, but on the days when the sun was shining on the days covered by the high pressure system, the temperature rose and it became sunny in spring. , and bud growth progressed. For this reason, in western and eastern Japan, “the tip is green” is increasing, and there are reports that “the tip is pink”.
Although there were warm days in northern Japan, the temperature was not high enough to promote bud growth, and most of the buds were “small and tough.”
However, in the southern part of Tohoku, growth was progressing little by little, and more reports have begun to arrive that “the destination is green”. Based on previous examples, bud changes are likely to begin to appear clearly in mid-March in Tohoku and late March in Hokkaido.
Cherry blossoms tend to bloom earlier each year, and in the last 10 years, from 2011 to 2020, cherry blossoms bloomed later than the normal bloom date only twice in 2011 and 2012.
This is said to be related to the effects of climate change and urbanization in recent years, as well as the aging of cherry blossoms.
Cherry trees tend to bloom earlier as they age. For this reason, the Japan Meteorological Agency replaces the sample trees depending on the flowering and full flowering situation, but even in the year when the temperature has passed to the normal level, the flowering time may be earlier than the normal year.
In this context, Weathernews Cherry Blossom Forecast includes annual bloom dates that reflect the latest blooming trends in addition to normal bloom dates.
* In this article, flowering is defined as follows.
Normal year: mean value from 1981 to 2010
Average year: 2016-2020 average
Very early: 7 days or more earlier than standard
Early: 5-6 days earlier than standard
Slightly early: 3-4 days earlier than standard
Average: difference from standard in 2 days
Slightly late: 3-4 days later than standard
Slow: 5-6 days after standard
Photo: Weather report (posted from the Weathernews app)
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