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[Tokio, 15 de Reuters]- Mr. Hiroyasu Mori, Director of the Investment Information Office at Okaji Securities, notes that the Japanese stock market has become healthier than before when the Nikkei average recovered to 30,000 yen for the first time in about 30 years and means, medium. half a year … It seems that the color of the bubble is clear, just because the share price is rising based on corporate performance. On the other hand, as the volatility of gaming-related stocks shows, the US stock market is more speculative.
Mori joined Okaji Securities in 1984. Since then, he has been steadily walking in the field of research.
── How is it different from 30 years ago?
“The Nikkei stock average is different from the 1980s and 1990s because continuity was cut off due to the massive replacement of constituent stocks in April 2000. I have the impression that we are climbing another mountain now. The revised Type 250 SBI’s average share price, which was able to measure
“The number of market participants and investors who participated at that time has decreased, and I think it’s not a big deal. For young people and investors, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 30,000 yen and the Nikkei average is 30,000 yen. It seems to be one of the fixes for late arrivals. “
──The Nikkei 225 and the Dow are aligned at “30,000”.
“When it comes to GameStop stocks (correction), it seems that US stocks have strengthened the color of the bubble. The most important characteristic of the bubble is that those with little evidence of the real situation are bought or very deviated from the real situation (In Japan, there was a land-owning company in the 1980s, an information and communication stock from the information technology bubble, and in the United States, there was a case of Enron in the past. “
“However, such an event has not occurred in Japanese stocks today. Rather, compliance is tight and bubbles are less likely to occur, probably due to the experience at the bubble time. Growth stocks are also in line. with real earnings. you buy without much deviation from the real situation, and the market is strong. I don’t think there will be a market bubble in the essential sense that it used to happen. “
── Are individual investors different from those days?
“The balance of credit purchases in Japan during the bubble period was 8 trillion yen, but now it is only 2 trillion yen. The weight of temporary demand is significantly different. Buy the same brand that was offered. as a guarantee for margin trading. to be solid, with the disappearance of transactions with a strong element of the game called “building”. It seems that speculation has decreased and the weight of investment has increased “.
“Special shareholders and speculators are dying, and share prices won’t budge due to current rumors. Japan used to be a connoisseur’s paradise, but today’s share prices are in line with earnings. Veteran market players and may not be of interest to investors, but a healthy market is likely to continue to form due to improved financial literacy and reporting equity. “
“Looking at the movement of GameStop shares, I felt like I saw Japan during the bubble era when individual investors took gray information from investment advisers in the city. In this sense, the United States is 30 years behind. ¿ It is not like this? “
──What are the outlook for Japanese stocks?
“Today’s Japanese stocks can be compared to undersea volcanoes. The essence of Japanese stocks has disappeared due to the crown disaster, but other than this, you have to remember that Japanese stocks were the market to overcome deflation in the long run. Now it’s a rise in share prices while the Japanese economy is below the surface. “
“The government has not declared that it will come out of deflation, and when you look at companies, there are a lot of internal reserves and a lot of debt free. Stocks with PBR (price-to-book ratio) below 1x are conspicuous and, above Everything, commercial performance is solid. For example, the Nikkei average of 30,000 yen would be just a passing point. Only when the exit from deflation is clear and the Japanese economy rises to the surface, will there be talk of risks such as monetary tightening “.
── The scenario of the stores of securities companies has changed.
“Investors are no longer crammed into the stock market, large individual clients are bringing cash, and influential sales reps are no longer taking large orders. It can feel like it is flowing online. Isemachi is pretty deserted too.”
* Correct “Gamestock Stock” in the fifth paragraph of the text to “GameStop Stock”.
