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[Tokio, 12, Reuters]Amid the spread of the new coronavirus infection, deposits, especially among the wealthy, are rising rapidly, and there are voices in some markets predicting a rapid increase in consumption when the corona infection resolves. On the other hand, the income environment is becoming more severe, especially among non-regular employees, and even in Japan, we are faced with polarization of wealth and poverty that we had never experienced after WWII.
Should the wealthy class be further enriched and its spillover effect extended to low-income people, or should direct benefits and government-led efforts to reduce disparities be increased? Even in Japan, which is not as fiercely debated as it is in the United States, it may be time to make a decision due to the social and economic changes brought about by the wreck of the crown.
According to the January money stock announced by the Bank of Japan on the 9th, M2 rose 9.4% year-on-year and M3 7.8% year-on-year. According to the trends in loans and deposits announced on the 8th, the average balance of loans from banks and shinkin banks increased by 6.1% compared to the previous year, and the average balance of deposits from the three regional banks , regional banks and the second regional banks increased by 9.8%. %. it was.
In addition to granting various benefits to companies and individuals, deposits from financial institutions are not consumed because they do not use the special fixed amount benefit distributed 100,000 yen per person and because they cannot travel or eat or drink. It includes that the funds are in deposits.
Within the government and the Bank of Japan, there seems to be a widespread belief that the money left by the rich accumulates as deposits and is one of the factors that push up M2 and M3.
What can be derived from this is that if the vaccination for the new crown goes smoothly, the money accumulated as reserve funds will go towards travel, food and drink, and other contact-type services later this year or earlier. next, which will cause an “overheating.” It is a scenario in which consumption expands even with a “feeling.”
In the 2021 budget bill presented by the government to the Diet, budgetary steps are taken to prepare for the resumption of the “GoTo” event. By creating a “wait for money” saucer, as noted, the economy as a whole will run smoothly. It can be said that it is a policy intended to perform the domino effect of.
It can be said that the fact that some financial institutions anticipate a V-shaped recovery in service-related demand and a recovery in the performance of related companies in the future is not just “position talk.”
On the other hand, the darkness of the shadow part of the wreath remains has become more severe over time. According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Social Welfare, the total number of unemployed has reached 86,551 by the 5th of this month due to corona infection.
According to the Labor Force Survey of the Ministry of the Interior and Communications, the number of non-regular employees registered a year-on-year decrease from March 2020 to November, the latest data. Looking at the rate of decline in November, men
The number of women is 370,000 compared to 250,000, indicating that the number of laid off women is increasing in the area of employment. Some analysts familiar with the labor issue affirm that the large proportion of women in non-fixed wage earners in accommodation, food and drink, typical of contact-type businesses, influences.
According to the National Police Agency, female suicides have exceeded the levels of the previous year for eight consecutive months from June last year to January this year. Experts have pointed out that the antecedents are related to the increase in unemployment due to the coronavirus. On the 12th, the government decided that Tetsushi Sakamoto, the minister in charge of regional revitalization, will also deal with “problems of loneliness” such as suicide, which are on the rise. The more governments establish ministers in charge, the more threatened the lives of people with low incomes and jobs will be.
It may be the first time in postwar Japan that a social phenomenon such that the affluence of some classes and poverty due to unemployment occurred on a large scale and in parallel. In other words, the bipolar structure of wealth and poverty is more advanced than ever.
Therefore, I would like to consider the reality of the question whether it is possible for service consumption to explode and significantly boost the Japanese economy after the end of the crown, which was raised above. Certainly, consumption of services such as travel and eating out can increase rapidly, causing a temporary and local boom.
However, with non-regular employees exceeding 40% of all employees, even if service consumption in the top 30% of revenue kicks in, the power to drive the Japanese economy as a whole is not expected to be so strong. I think we should pay close attention to future developments, use the data obtained there and use it in future macroeconomic policies.
Therefore, I would like to propose whether to increase the priority of demand stimulation measures such as the “GoTo” policy when there is a large economic fluctuation due to a peculiar cause such as Corona, or if “clothing, food and housing “for people in need. Shouldn’t we start discussions about choosing a comprehensive policy framework, either to implement boldly or to benefit directly?
The House of Representatives election will always take place in 2021. I would like to point out that it is time for people to think and make decisions about the big political frameworks. In addition, political parties must present a menu of policies that the public can choose from, but at present, neither the ruling party nor the opposition has come up with a proposal.
After 21 years, we should find a way to solve problems of wealth and poverty that are different from those of the United States and recover the growth potential of this country.
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