It is quite possible that the La Niña phenomenon will converge during the spring in the future (Nikkei Forecaster February 10, 2021) – Japan Meteorological Association tenki.jp

January Comment

The sea surface temperature in the El Niño monitoring area in January is lower than the standard value, the difference with the standard value is -0.5 ° C and the November value of the 5-month moving average used to judge the occurrence of La Nina’s phenomenon is -1.0. It was ℃. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean were lower than normal from the center to the east and higher than normal in the west. Sea surface temperatures were lower than normal in the center in the east and higher than normal in the west. Convective activity near the international date line in the equatorial Pacific region was less active than normal, and easterly winds (trade winds) in the lower atmosphere of the central region were stronger than normal. These marine and atmospheric conditions are characteristic of the La Niña phenomenon, which has continued since last summer.

Prospect of the future

Warm ocean surface water found in the western part of the equatorial Pacific region is becoming clearer, and the state where the sea surface temperature in the central to eastern part is believed to be lower than normal will be resolved by moving east in the future. The El Niño prediction model predicts that the sea surface temperature in the El Niño monitoring area will gradually approach the standard value in the spring and remain near or above the standard value in the summer. However, considering that it is a time when there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, we will consider suppressing the increase in water temperature during the summer. Therefore, it is very possible that the La Niña phenomenon will end during the spring and become normal.

State of the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean Tropics